UN World Population Prospect 2022

The most recent report from the UN, titled ‘UN World Population Prospect 2022’, was just made public.

  • On November 15, 2022, the world’s population is expected to reach 8 billion, a milestone that denotes significant advancements in public health that have lowered mortality rates and raised life expectancy.
  • Most of this expansion has been driven by Asia and Africa.
  • By 2037, it is anticipated that they will provide the next billion, whilst Europe’s contribution would be negative due to a shrinking population.
  • After the death rate started to decline, the population grew dramatically, reaching a peak of 2.1% year between 1962 and 1965.
  • The global population increased from 2.5 billion to 5 billion people between 1950 and 1987.
  • About 70% of the population growth from 7 to 8 billion people occurred in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
  • The two most populous regions in the world in 2022 were both in Asia: Central and Southern Asia had 2.1 billion people and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia had 2.3 billion people, or 29% of the world’s population.
  • Between now and 2050, the global increase in the population under the age 65 will occur entirely in low income and lower-middle-income countries, since population growth in high-income and upper-middle income countries will occur only among those aged 65 or more.
  • With populations of over 1.4 billion apiece, China and India made up a bigger portion of the world’s population in 2022.
  • In 2020, the world’s population decreased by less than 1%, rising at its sluggishest rate since 1950.
  • Up from 40% in 1990, 60% of the world’s population now resides in areas where the fertility rate is below the replacement level.India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have all experienced significant emigration in recent years.

Forecasts for the report

  • Around 8.5 billion people could live on the planet by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.
  • In 2050, India’s population is projected to reach 1.66 billion, surpassing China’s 1.37 billion.
  • In 2022, persons in India between the ages of 15 and 64 made up 8% of the population, while those 65 and over made up 7%.
  • By 2023, India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation. By 2050, the population of eight countries—India, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania, Pakistan, and the Philippines—will have increased by more than half of the projected rate.
  • Between 2022 and 2050, it is predicted that the populations of 61 countries or regions would decline by 1% or more, as a result of persistently low fertility rates and, in some circumstances, high emigration rates.
  • However, the 46 least developed nations are among those with the fastest growing economies.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): India

  • In India, the [population] replacement level of 2.1 has been reached in 31 states and union territories.
  • The national TFR for India has decreased from 2.2 to 2.0.
  • In states like Bihar, Meghalaya, Manipur, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Madhya Pradesh, TFR is higher than the national average.
  • An rise in the use of contemporary family planning techniques and a decrease in the unmet need for family planning are the main causes of the decline in fertility.

Current situation of India and way forward

  • The proportion of people who were of working age peaked at 66% globally in 2012, however in India it stood at 70% in 2020. This demonstrates that India’s performance in comparison to the rest of the globe is lacking. Additionally, studies show that compared to other Asian nations, India has not reaped the same economic benefits from the demographic transformation.
  • In addition, while the global average for the proportion of people in working age was 59%, India’s was 46% in 2021.
  • When it comes to women’s employment in India, the situation is worse. According to figures from the World Bank, only 19% of women are employed globally, compared to 46% in India.
  • As a result, India has to hire more women, develop the appropriate policies, and increase the quality of its human resource overall. India will be able to effectively use its demographic dividend thanks to this.
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