The convening of the 17th round of India-China corps commander-level talks at the Chushul-Moldo border meeting point in eastern Ladakh a week after the clash in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh, is a positive development. However, it does not inspire confidence in Chinese intentions in relation to the Line of Actual Control.
Background
- Disengagement at Gogra Hot Springs in the 16th round of talks: The government announced in September that the two sides had finished disengaging at Gogra Hot Springs, as agreed in the 16th round of talks.
- Beijing appears hesitant to agree to another round of talks: Beijing appeared hesitant to agree to another round of talks, No return to the status quo: China indicates that there is nothing more to discuss about the situation in eastern Ladakh, and that there will be no return to the status quo that existed prior to its incursions in April-May 2020.
What was the outcome of the most recent round of talks, and what is the current situation?
- There has been no mutually acceptable resolution to the remaining issues: According to a joint statement, the two sides agreed to continue talking through military and diplomatic channels toward a mutually acceptable resolution of the remaining issues as soon as possible. It is also unclear whether both parties have reached an agreement on the remaining issues.
- Apart from the fact that India now faces a different status quo and that the PLA is rapidly constructing war-like infrastructure on its side, the remaining issues for India are the presence of Chinese troops in the Depsang plains and intrusions in the Demchok area.
- Tensions appear to be manageable, but the situation is unpredictable: The sectoralization makes the tensions appear manageable, but the reality appears to be that no one can predict which part of the 3,500 km of line will suddenly flare up, as it did recently.
- The situation is critical: When Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar told Parliament that India’s deployment at the LAC is at its peak, he underscored the gravity of the situation.
- Despite advanced surveillance, there is no clarity on the Army’s readiness: Despite the advanced Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance devices reportedly installed in Tawang, it is unclear how prepared the Army was for the transgression, according to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s brief statement.
Why China has opened new front in Tawang?
- The status quo along the border is not limited to the Western Sector: given the importance of the Xinjiang-Tibet region in China’s domestic narrative, China has traditionally been active in areas close to Ladakh. With its sights set on an aging Dalai Lama and the issue of his succession, Beijing will want to focus on Tawang and the rest of Arunachal Pradesh.
- Huge investment in eastern infrastructure: For many years, China has made significant investments in eastern infrastructure. This includes improved rail, road, and air connectivity, as well as improved capacity to station and supply troops and artillery.
- The importance of the boundary issue in India-China relations: External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has repeatedly stated that it is no longer possible to separate the boundary issue from the overall relationship and that peace and tranquillity along the LAC are essential for restoring relations. However, China is likely to maintain pressure on the ground along the LAC, even as they continue to suggest that the two countries look beyond their differences, similar to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s remarks during his March 2022 visit, in which he stated that the two sides needed to “inject more positive energy” into the relationship.
Way forward
- Even as it increases military readiness, Delhi should make a diplomatic push for talks.
- Whatever the facts are on the ground, and regardless of how the tensions will play out, the government would be wise to engage the Opposition parties as soon as possible.
- When confronted with border tensions, the country requires broad political consensus, and it is the government’s task and responsibility to build it.
@the end
Even as it increases military readiness, Delhi should make a diplomatic push for talks. Whatever the facts are on the ground, and regardless of how the tensions will play out, the government should engage the Opposition parties as soon as possible. When confronted with border tensions, the country requires broad political consensus.
Source: https://www.outlookindia.com/national/ladakh-stand-off-india-china-hold-17th-round-of-talks-agree-to-maintain-security-stability-in-area-news-247247