- Despite pleas for peace, 2023 saw the continuing and emergence of serious hostilities, most notably between Russia and Ukraine, and in the Gaza Strip.
- China’s Attitude: Despite its economic difficulties, China’s assertive posture continues to worry the West and India, contributing to global tension.
Strategic Realities and Challenges in 2023
- Middle East Crisis: The Hamas attack hampered efforts to normalise Israeli-Arab relations, prompting a catastrophic Israeli response and derailing the peace process.
- Allegations that an Indian official was involved in an assassination plot have strained relations, with India offering to investigate if given information.
- War Fatigue in Russia-Ukraine: The West is battling with finance issues as the conflict drags on, while Russia, despite sanctions, remains resilient, thanks in part to its close relationship with China.
- The new government’s proposal for India to evacuate military personnel and cancel agreements indicates its proximity to China, complicating India’s geopolitical posture.
- The Biggest Concern: China The continued border stalemate and China’s regional influence, particularly connections with Russia and the Maldives, remain India’s top strategic worries.
- Positioning of the G20 and the Global South: India’s G20 leadership and role in uniting the Global South show its desire to carry on the Non-Alignment heritage while adapting to new realities.
- Engagement in Kabul: India’s cautious engagement with the Taliban and cooperation for consular services show a balanced approach to Afghanistan that balances security and diplomatic concerns.
Anticipating Challenges and Opportunities in 2024
- The Impact of the Lok Sabha Elections: The outcome of the election would have a considerable impact on India’s foreign policy, with a stronger mandate potentially leading to more assertive views, whereas a weaker mandate may reflect coalition compulsions.
- Relationships with the United States and Canada: Navigating the complications of the assassination plot claims while retaining strong ties with both countries will be critical for India.
- Pakistan’s New Administration: Depending on the political dynamics and India’s geopolitical choices, the post-election scenario in Pakistan may provide a window for re-engagement.
- Outcome in Bangladesh: India’s interest in Sheikh Hasina’s government’s continuation reflects security and connectivity goals, with the opposition viewed with scepticism.
- Continuation of the Border Standoff with China: The border standoff and its possible escalation will be significant factors in India’s security and diplomatic policy, particularly in an election year.
- West Asia Dynamics: India’s developing attitude in the Israel-Hamas conflict, as well as the ramifications for its standing in the Global South, will be constantly monitored, with an emphasis on balancing relations and principles.
- The Future of the Ukraine War: India’s difficult balancing act between economic interests and geopolitical pressures, particularly in its ties with Russia, will continue.
- Trade Treaties and Technology collaborations: With potential substantial advances predicted in 2024, finalising trade treaties and strengthening tech collaborations with the West will be crucial areas of focus.
Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/strategy-and-foreign-affairs-for-india-in-2024-dealing-with-realities-looking-at-opportunities-9085554/