As the world’s great powers clash, the prospects for multilateral agreements have dimmed. The conflict between the major powers has widened on both the economic and political fronts. This makes India’s G20 presidency more difficult.
Historical comprehension of major global events
- Warfare and rebalancing: Major wars have always reshaped great power relationships and restructured the international system. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine will be no exception.
- The Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, and Russian empires all fell apart during the First World War. It also aided the Bolsheviks in Russia in establishing the Soviet Union, gave birth to new European nations, and accelerated the rise of Asian nationalism.
- The Second World War hastened the end of European colonialism and heralded the rise of the US and the Soviet Union as superpowers. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow kept an armed peace in a divided Europe. Decolonization resulted in the birth of a number of new nations in Asia and Africa.
- The Cold War: It resulted in the demise of the Soviet Union, the disintegration of its sphere of influence in East and Central Europe, and the rise of the unipolar moment. Following the Cold War, the era of massive economic interdependence saw China’s rapid rise and India’s slower but definitive emergence as a major power.
How are Russia and China working together to alter regional and global world order?
- Asserting themselves against the US: In the twenty-first century, Moscow and Beijing, which were willing to accept the unipolar moment in the 1990s, began to assert themselves against the US-led international order. Europe prioritized economic and political integration while seeking greater strategic autonomy from the United States.
- The apparent decline of the United States: As they grew closer over the last decade, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping bet that the apparent decline of the United States was real and irreversible. This encouraged Putin to bet on his chances of ending Ukraine’s sovereignty.
- China-backed Russia against Europe: The West’s apparent political disarray persuaded Xi to support Putin’s attempt to reorder European regional security order. The unrestricted partnership with no forbidden areas of cooperation was announced less than three weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
The result of Russia’s failed attempt to seize Ukraine
- Diplomacy is the only option: The case for diplomacy will gain traction in 2023 as the costs of war rise. While both sides talk about peace, they are also preparing for the harsh winter. Diplomacy in 2023 will be focused on bridging the gap between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions.
- Weaker Russia: Whatever the final outcome, Russia will be weaker as a result of this military miscalculation. Putin’s attempts to delegitimize Ukraine as an independent nation and reverse NATO’s eastward expansion have backfired. The war has strengthened Ukraine’s position as a nation, and NATO has expanded to include Sweden and Finland.
- Self-defense Europe’s inability: The war has also demonstrated Europe’s inability to defend itself against Russia, despite the EU’s economy being ten times that of Russia. However, for the time being, and in the near future, Europe will rely on the United States to defend itself against an expansionist Russia. While Europe has grown weaker, transatlantic NATO has grown stronger.
- US industries are thriving: The United States is emerging as a major winner in the Ukraine conflict. High energy prices are benefiting American oil companies. US weapons like HIMARS, as well as high-tech firms like SpaceX with its Starlin satellite system and Palantir with its algorithms, have actively shaped the battlefield in favor of Ukraine, the war’s underdog. Far more important, despite not being directly involved in the fighting, the US is influencing the war’s direction and has the most clout in defining the terms of peace in Ukraine.
The impact of Chinese and Russian aggression on mid-power nations
- Because of Putin and Xi’s overreach, the US has become a valuable partner for the middle powers who have been subjected to Russian and Chinese bullying.
- Awakening for Germany and Japan: Russian expansionism in Europe and Chinese aggression in Asia have forced Germany in Europe and Japan in Asia to increase defense spending.
- Regional security policies have been launched by Poland in Europe and Australia and South Korea in Asia.
What should India’s strategy be?
- India should reconsider its status: India, which has long relied on Russia to provide a regional balance of power, must reconsider its great power sums. Given India’s improved relations with the US and Europe, as well as its emphasis on diversifying its defense partnerships, this should not be too difficult.
- Increasing domestic capabilities: To deter China’s aggressive border actions and balance Beijing’s power in the Indo-Pacific, Delhi will need to move much faster in developing national capabilities and international partnerships. Delhi cannot assume that its current economic and political advantages will continue.
- Finally, it is unlikely that the world will return to the type of multilateralism that we have become accustomed to since the 1990s. India’s G20 leadership would be successful if it could prevent the multilateral system from collapsing completely and generate major power consensus on a few issues.
@the end
India should take advantage of the world’s chaotic order to strengthen itself. India’s top priorities should be indigenous military capabilities, double-digit economic growth, and securing core foreign policy interests.
Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/positioning-india-in-a-chaotic-world/article65914970.ece