Category: International Relations

• The World Economic Forum has started its annual summit in Davos, Switzerland (WEF)
• WEF, headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, is an international non-profit organisation dedicated to bringing together the public and private sectors to address global political, social, and economic issues.
• It was established in 1971 by Swiss-German economist and Professor Klaus Schwab in order to promote global cooperation on these most pressing issues.
• The World Economic Forum’s first meeting was held more than five decades ago in Davos, which has been the site of the annual gathering almost since its inception, and has also become a shorthand for the event.

WEF partners

• The World Economic Forum is largely supported by its corporate partners.
• These are typically multinational corporations with annual revenues in excess of $5 billion.
• The WEF provides a platform for these corporations to “shape the future, accessing networks and experts to ensure strategic decision-making on the most pressing global issues.”
• Partners range from Apollo Tyres to Apple, and they can come from any industry as long as they want to engage through the WEF’s platforms.
• WEF also collaborates with government subsidies.

What is the purpose of the Davos summits?

• Davos, sometimes referred to as “Europe’s highest town,” has hosted the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting every year since its inception, with one exception.
• Davos, a ski resort and the annual host of the World Economic Forum’s meeting, is a charming town nestled in the Swiss Alps.
• In many ways, it is an unexpected venue for a gathering of global economic titans and geopolitical leaders.
• Following the 9/11 attacks, the meeting was held in New York in 2002 as a show of solidarity.

Who are the participants, and what happens in Davos?

• Davos typically attracts global business executives and policymakers, and attendance is strictly by invitation only.
• The sitting US president, top EU and UN leaders, business leaders and entrepreneurs, academics, heads of NGOs and charities, the media, activists, and even some celebrities will usually attend.
• Donald Trump, Jens Stoltenberg, Ursula von der Leyen, Greta Thunberg, Elton John, and a slew of other well-known figures have previously attended Davos.
• Hundreds of discussions, keynote speeches and panels, and crucial networking sessions are held at the conference, which is usually held behind closed doors in five-star hotels.
• CEOs and investors seize the opportunity to conduct face-to-face transactions.

Davos 2023: What’s on this year’s agenda?

• The annual meeting in Davos this year will take place from January 16 to 20, 2023.
• The theme is “cooperation in a fragmented world,” and it is subdivided into five sub-themes: energy and food crises, inflation, technology for innovation, social vulnerabilities, and geopolitical risks.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/davos-2023-interesting-facts-about-the-event-8385623/

The decision to invite Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al Sisi as the Chief Guest on Republic Day is a significant gesture that should help to revitalize India’s relations with the Arab world’s largest country.

What makes Egypt such an important player?

• Egypt is a pivotal player in global affairs, with a population of nearly 110 million people, a location that straddles Africa and Asia, the largest standing army in the region, a capital that hosts the League of Arab States, and a diplomatic presence that punches above its weight in global affairs.

Why is Egypt important to India?

• Close relationship immediately after independence: It is a country with which India had a particularly close relationship in the first few decades after independence.
• NAM shared vision: Prime Minister Nehru and President Nasser’s personal relationship was legendary, and the two became stalwarts of the nonaligned movement during the 1960s Cold War.
• Politically, the two countries were close enough for India to send clandestine arms shipments to Egypt during the Suez crisis in 1956 and to consider nuclear cooperation and a joint fighter project in the 1960s.
• In Egypt, Mahatma Gandhi and Rabindranath Tagore were household names, and their works were translated into Arabic by leading figures in Arab literature.

A nearly 30-year swerve

• The two countries began to drift apart. Especially from 1981 to 2011, during President Hosni Mubarak’s long tenure.
• According to diplomatic legend, an apparently minor protocol blunder during the New Delhi NAM summit in 1983 was perceived as a personal affront, and it took 25 years for Mubarak to be persuaded to return to India in November 2008.

Growing ties and willingness to collaborate

• Egypt demonstrated its intent to collaborate when President Sisi took office in 2014, first through his participation in the India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi in 2015, and again through a state visit in 2016.
• India’s back-to-back visits and emphasis on defense cooperation: High-level exchanges over the last two years resulted in Desert Warrior, the first-ever joint tactical exercise by the two countries’ air forces, with the IAF sending five Mirage 2000 fighters and a refueling aircraft to El Berigat Airbase in Egypt.
• Egyptian interest in India’s Tejas and Dhruv fighter jets: The Egyptians have expressed an interest in India’s Tejas fighter jets and Dhruv light attack helicopters, though this is still at an early stage.
• Cooperation to counter hostilities: Equally important is their behind-the-scenes assistance in countering hostile moves by Pakistan at forums such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), as well as their refusal to make any negative comments during the Nupur Sharma affair.
• Mutual goodwill: Over the last two years, both countries have demonstrated mutual goodwill by assisting each other at critical times.
• Egypt provides 300,000 doses of Remdesivir to India: When India was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19, Egypt responded by sending three plane loads of medical supplies and 300,000 doses of Remdesivir in May 2021.
• India reciprocated by supplying wheat a year later, when Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, was facing a dire situation as a result of Ukraine’s abrupt halt in wheat shipments. The Indian response also cleared the way for Egypt to visit India’s wheat-growing regions and register India for regular wheat exports to Egypt.
• Bilateral trade is far below its potential, but it is increasing: Backed by these tailwinds, bilateral trade increased by nearly 75% last year to reach US$ 7 billion, though this is far below the potential given the size of the two economies. However, Egypt’s emerging investment scenario presents a more intriguing opportunity.

Egypt’s current economic situation and India’s investment

• Egypt’s economy is in trouble: Non-oil sector growth has been anaemic, foreign exchange reserves have dwindled, and the Egyptian pound has been in free fall, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) administering a bitter pill to address some of the issues.
• Economic and administrative reforms: After several failed attempts, and compelled by the gravity of the economic crisis, the Egyptian government appears to be taking economic and administrative reforms seriously.
• India values ease of doing business: Indian firms have invested in Egypt and, for the most part, done well. Indian businesses are responding positively, with some openly stating that after years of apathy, they are finally being heard and action is being taken to make ease of doing business a reality.
• The ambitious plans to transform the Suez Canal Economic Zone into a global manufacturing hub are reaching critical mass. ReNew Power, based in Gurgaon, appears to be the first Indian company to sign an agreement to establish a Green Hydrogen facility. It is clearly driven by attractive tax breaks, cheap and plentiful land, 365 days of sun to generate the solar energy needed for the electrolyzers, and a strategic location that allows easy access to European markets.

There is still time to strengthen the bonds

• A deeper economic engagement with Egypt thus becomes a strategic imperative for India.
• While Egypt clearly needs to do more to market itself as an investment destination in India, industry bodies such as the CII, FICCI, and ASSOCHAM must also be more proactive.
• ReNew Power has paved the way, but it will take a collaborative government-industry effort to achieve the scale required to make an impact.

@the end

For the time being, there are clear indications that India under Prime Minister Modi and Egypt under President Sisi may finally be moving toward realising some of the potentials in bilateral ties that have lain dormant for the last four decades.

Source: https://mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Egypt_January_2014.pdf

While the efficacy of multilateral cooperation is frequently questioned in the midst of compelling force politics and global power politics, the world simply does not have any other option than structured cooperation. The fate of BIMSTEC, like the progress and relevance of multilateral cooperation, must be contextualised in a world order that demands action and resolve.

What is BIMSTEC?

• The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is an international organisation of seven South Asian and Southeast Asian countries with a combined GDP of US$4.4 trillion (2022).
• Members: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand are among the countries that rely on the Bay of Bengal.

BIMSTEC’s current situation

• Inadequate connectivity and resources: On the one hand, BIMSTEC’s geographical boundaries suffer from poor intra-regional connectivity, which is critical to increasing economic engagement; on the other hand, the grouping itself is beleaguered by a lack of an institutional structure, operational blueprint, and financial resources.
• Newfound passion: In recent years, the BIMSTEC has demonstrated intent, with member nations taking the first steps since the organization’s inception toward providing the latter agency, mobility, and funds.
• Recent activities include the adoption of a charter that grants the grouping legal status; a reduction in the number of priority areas from 14 to seven pillars, allowing for more focused engagement; the signing of memorandums on technology transfer, diplomatic training, and a master plan on connectivity, all of which are critical to the grouping’s future as aspirational countries in a region that has already become the gravitational centre of global connectivity.
• Economic and political stability: The’renewal of interest’ after more than two decades is attributed to the economic and political stability and growth that member countries (except Myanmar) have witnessed, as well as the world’s interest being directed towards opportunities in the Indo-Pacific and an increasingly hostile China.
• BIMSTEC must cover a lot of ground: On paper, the BIMSTEC is well-positioned as a regional organisation to focus shared efforts on harnessing member nations’ economic, natural, and labour potential.

Understanding Multilateralism/Multilateral Cooperation

• A hybrid rather than a binary assessment of multilateralism: An assessment of multilateralism must move away from binary understandings of world architectures. In essence, they are hybrid affairs, combining universal aspirations like human rights with a more mundane system of managed competition. This format is not going away.
• Achieving common goals through collective strengths: Multilateral organisations serve as facilitators of regional goals by pooling the strengths of members for advancement, as lobbying entities for regional aspirations and demands on the global stage, and as the core purpose of these organisations. However, multilateralism has its own set of drawbacks.
• Political disagreements: Perhaps the most significant limitations of multilateral engagement are ineffectiveness and becoming unwieldy as they include several member countries in certain types of decision-making, particularly political decision-making.
• This is especially true of large regional or global organisations, with ASEAN serving as an exception to the rule.
• Mini-laterals: To address this issue, smaller and more focused initiatives in the form of mini-lateral engagement have emerged in recent years, allowing smaller and more ‘like-minded’ nations to band together for function-based cooperation.
• As an example, consider BBIN: In the South Asian region, one example of mini-lateral engagement is the BBIN sub-regional framework, which has struggled due to operational complexities.

What should be the next step?

• Addressing illegal migration: Multilateral forums also allow for coordinated articulations of regional challenges. Among the BIMSTEC’s common challenges are irregular migration, environmental degradation, transnational crimes, terrorism and insurgencies, and drug trafficking, the mitigation of many of which requires the involvement of the world’s major powers, particularly on the issue of migration and climate action.
• Support through the G20 presidency: India’s G20 presidency in 2023 provides a unique opportunity to use New Delhi’s strengthened position in global politics to rally support for BIMSTEC’s requirements and objectives.
• Intention is more powerful than obstacles: The success of any organisation, large or small, is dependent on the members’ intent, regardless of operational, financial, political, or institutional constraints.
• Finance, institutions, and organisation: There has been much concern about BIMSTEC, a grouping comprised of members from what is frequently referred to as the world’s least integrated region, lacking sufficient financing and institutional structures to guide its operations. Nonetheless, because the organisation has shown intent thus far, BIMSTEC’s promise has more clout than its impediments.

@the end

BIMSTEC has suffered from a lack of funding, a dedicated institution, and a proper grouping structure. Hopefully, new mini-laterals (BBIN) will revitalise the BIMSTEC in a much stronger and more successful way. India should take the initiative in reviving this multilateral forum.

Source: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/bimstec-and-the-fate-of-multilateralism/

Japan’s National Security Strategy, which was released in December, is an outstanding document. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s assertive rise, and provocations by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK-North Korea) are among the key developments that have created the most severe and complex security environment for Japan since the end of WWII.

What are Japan’s latest concerns?

• Chinese military power is growing: Chinese military power is increasing at an exponential rate, unconstrained by bilateral or multilateral agreements. In less than a decade, China’s nuclear arsenal would match that of the United States and Russia. Expectations are low that the US will have the will or the capability to bring China to the negotiating table on arms control.
• The DPRK is on a rampage of proliferation: After shaking off all the constraints on its nuclear program that it pretended to accept during the Trump administration, its nuclear program may now be unstoppable.
• The inadequacy of its current defence posture, as well as its military alliance with the United States: The document emphasizes that extended deterrence, including nuclear weapons, is the cornerstone of the US-Japan alliance. Its success has allowed Japan to maintain its three nuclear no’s policy of no nuclear weapons production, possession, or introduction on its territory.

What concerns Japan about its future adequacy and options

• The stated alternative: The National Security Strategy calls for Japan to strengthen its alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities, including extended deterrence by the US, backed by its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.
• Japan’s possible nuclear-sharing trends: The unspoken part is Japan’s possible nuclear-sharing. This may be new to Asia if implemented, but it is a long-standing US practice with its key NATO allies in Europe. The willingness of the United States to share nuclear-powered submarines with Australia as part of AUKUS is an indicator of potential trends.
• The possibility of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons is not mentioned in the document. However, there are references to the United States, which, in Japan’s opinion, is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a free and open international order. The message is clear behind Japanese politeness.
• Japanese-style strategic autonomy: Significantly, the document adds that Japan would seek to strengthen its defense capabilities to the point where it could assume primary responsibility for its defense while still receiving US support.

How India should view this development?

• If Japan goes nuclear, India should be pleased: In our respective ways, India and Japan prioritized nuclear disarmament. However, there comes a time when this national preference must be subordinated to national security concerns.
• Recognizing the reason: In 1998, India came to this reluctant but justified conclusion. If Japan came to the same conclusion, it would have good reason to.
• Maintaining sovereignty and ensuring self-defense capabilities: Its technological capabilities are undeniable. It is Japan’s inherent and inalienable right to ensure the necessary means of self-defense. Thinking the unthinkable in terms of policy change is a feature of sovereignty, not its denial.

Way forward

• If Japan chooses to pursue an explicit nuclear option, it will do so out of necessity rather than choice.
• Its strategic predicament, as revealed by the document, is exacerbated by a lack of simple solutions, a predicament that India should regard with sympathy and understanding as a fellow Asian country.
• Japan is a strong supporter of the NPT and its derivative non-proliferation regime, but it is also painfully aware that the NPT does little to constrain China or the DPRK.
• In the past, US extended deterrence covered the gap between Japan’s security needs in a nuclearized world and its non-nuclear public sentiment. That appears less likely to be the case in the future.

@the end

A truly multipolar Indo-Pacific can exist only if Japan is assured of national defense through means of its choosing. As a strategic partner and friend, we must remain confident that Japan will make the correct decision at the appropriate time.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/japan-national-security-strategy-japan-goes-nuclear-india-should-welcome-8363720/

As the world’s great powers clash, the prospects for multilateral agreements have dimmed. The conflict between the major powers has widened on both the economic and political fronts. This makes India’s G20 presidency more difficult.

Historical comprehension of major global events

• Warfare and rebalancing: Major wars have always reshaped great power relationships and restructured the international system. Russia’s conflict with Ukraine will be no exception.
• The Ottoman, Austro-Hungarian, and Russian empires all fell apart during the First World War. It also aided the Bolsheviks in Russia in establishing the Soviet Union, gave birth to new European nations, and accelerated the rise of Asian nationalism.
• The Second World War hastened the end of European colonialism and heralded the rise of the US and the Soviet Union as superpowers. During the Cold War, Washington and Moscow kept an armed peace in a divided Europe. Decolonization resulted in the birth of a number of new nations in Asia and Africa.
• The Cold War: It resulted in the demise of the Soviet Union, the disintegration of its sphere of influence in East and Central Europe, and the rise of the unipolar moment. Following the Cold War, the era of massive economic interdependence saw China’s rapid rise and India’s slower but definitive emergence as a major power.

How are Russia and China working together to alter regional and global world order?

• Asserting themselves against the US: In the twenty-first century, Moscow and Beijing, which were willing to accept the unipolar moment in the 1990s, began to assert themselves against the US-led international order. Europe prioritized economic and political integration while seeking greater strategic autonomy from the United States.
• The apparent decline of the United States: As they grew closer over the last decade, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping bet that the apparent decline of the United States was real and irreversible. This encouraged Putin to bet on his chances of ending Ukraine’s sovereignty.
• China-backed Russia against Europe: The West’s apparent political disarray persuaded Xi to support Putin’s attempt to reorder European regional security order. The unrestricted partnership with no forbidden areas of cooperation was announced less than three weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The result of Russia’s failed attempt to seize Ukraine

• Diplomacy is the only option: The case for diplomacy will gain traction in 2023 as the costs of war rise. While both sides talk about peace, they are also preparing for the harsh winter. Diplomacy in 2023 will be focused on bridging the gap between Russian and Ukrainian negotiating positions.
• Weaker Russia: Whatever the final outcome, Russia will be weaker as a result of this military miscalculation. Putin’s attempts to delegitimize Ukraine as an independent nation and reverse NATO’s eastward expansion have backfired. The war has strengthened Ukraine’s position as a nation, and NATO has expanded to include Sweden and Finland.
• Self-defense Europe’s inability: The war has also demonstrated Europe’s inability to defend itself against Russia, despite the EU’s economy being ten times that of Russia. However, for the time being, and in the near future, Europe will rely on the United States to defend itself against an expansionist Russia. While Europe has grown weaker, transatlantic NATO has grown stronger.
• US industries are thriving: The United States is emerging as a major winner in the Ukraine conflict. High energy prices are benefiting American oil companies. US weapons like HIMARS, as well as high-tech firms like SpaceX with its Starlin satellite system and Palantir with its algorithms, have actively shaped the battlefield in favor of Ukraine, the war’s underdog. Far more important, despite not being directly involved in the fighting, the US is influencing the war’s direction and has the most clout in defining the terms of peace in Ukraine.

The impact of Chinese and Russian aggression on mid-power nations

• Because of Putin and Xi’s overreach, the US has become a valuable partner for the middle powers who have been subjected to Russian and Chinese bullying.
• Awakening for Germany and Japan: Russian expansionism in Europe and Chinese aggression in Asia have forced Germany in Europe and Japan in Asia to increase defense spending.
• Regional security policies have been launched by Poland in Europe and Australia and South Korea in Asia.

What should India’s strategy be?

• India should reconsider its status: India, which has long relied on Russia to provide a regional balance of power, must reconsider its great power sums. Given India’s improved relations with the US and Europe, as well as its emphasis on diversifying its defense partnerships, this should not be too difficult.
• Increasing domestic capabilities: To deter China’s aggressive border actions and balance Beijing’s power in the Indo-Pacific, Delhi will need to move much faster in developing national capabilities and international partnerships. Delhi cannot assume that its current economic and political advantages will continue.
• Finally, it is unlikely that the world will return to the type of multilateralism that we have become accustomed to since the 1990s. India’s G20 leadership would be successful if it could prevent the multilateral system from collapsing completely and generate major power consensus on a few issues.

@the end

India should take advantage of the world’s chaotic order to strengthen itself. India’s top priorities should be indigenous military capabilities, double-digit economic growth, and securing core foreign policy interests.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/positioning-india-in-a-chaotic-world/article65914970.ece

The Asian Pacific Postal Union (APPU), with its headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, was taken over by India.

Asian Pacific Postal Union (APPU)

• APPU is an intergovernmental organization comprised of 32 Asian-Pacific member countries.
• It was established by an international treaty on March 27, 1981, with the signing of the Asian-Pacific Postal Convention in Yogyakarta.
• The organization was established in 1961.
• APPU is the region’s only Restricted Union of the Universal Postal Union (UPU), a United Nations specialized agency.
• The Secretary General directs the Union’s activities and is also the Director of the Asian Pacific Postal College (APPC), the region’s largest intergovernmental postal training institute.

Goals and objectives

• The goal of the APPU is to expand, facilitate, and improve postal relations among member countries, as well as to promote postal service cooperation.
• As the regional center for various UPU projects, APPU is also in charge of ensuring that all UPU technical and operational projects are completed in the region.

Importance of India’s chair

The Asia Pacific region employs roughly one-third of the world’s postal workforce and handles roughly half of the world’s mail volume.

India seeks to improve regional coordination with postal players in the Asia Pacific region in order to boost business growth through the postal network and ensure the Union’s long-term viability.

This is the first time an Indian has led an international postal organization.

Source: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1888356

India and Pakistan have exchanged a list of nuclear installations that cannot be attacked if hostilities escalate.

Non-Nuclear Aggression Agreement

• The Non-nuclear aggression agreement is a bilateral nuclear weapons control treaty signed by India and Pakistan to reduce (or limit) nuclear weapons.
• Both pledged not to attack or assist foreign powers in attacking the nuclear installations and facilities of the other.
• The treaty was drafted in 1988 and signed on December 21, 1988, by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and his counterpart Benazir Bhutto; it entered into force in January 1991.
• The treaty prohibited signatories from carrying out surprise attacks (or assisting foreign powers in carrying out attacks) on each other’s nuclear installations and facilities.
• Since January 1992, India and Pakistan have exchanged lists of their respective military and civilian nuclear-related facilities on an annual basis.

The necessity of the treaty

• The Indian Army conducted the massive exercise ‘Brasstacks’ in 1986-87, raising fears of an Indian attack on Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.
• Since then, the foreign ministries of both countries have been negotiating an agreement on nuclear weapons control.

The importance of the agreement

• The treaty prohibited signatories from carrying out surprise attacks (or assisting foreign powers in carrying out attacks) on each other’s nuclear installations and facilities.
• The treaty creates a security environment that fosters trust.

Other: Sharing of Prisoners’ information

• Both countries share a list of prisoners in each other’s custody at the same time.
• These lists are exchanged in accordance with the terms of the Consular Access Agreement, which was signed in May 2008.
• According to the terms of the agreement, the two countries must exchange comprehensive lists on January 1 and July 1 of each year (i.e. twice a year).

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-exchange-list-of-nuclear-installations-prisoners/article38086493.ece

In his first meeting with President Barack Obama in September 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed making the United States a key partner in realizing India’s rise as a responsible, influential world power. This was, in some ways, the first time any Indian prime minister had discussed the country’s ambition to become a responsible, influential world power.

India in World politics

• India is not new to taking the lead in global politics: Since its inception, India’s leadership has actively pursued an agenda that benefits developing or less developed countries.
• India took a principled stance against the developed world’s policy dominance: Whether it was the GATT negotiations or the Non-Proliferation Treaty, India took a principled stance and stood up to the developed world’s policy dominance.
• India as a developing-world protector: During WTO negotiations, India played an important role in protecting the interests of the developing world.
• For example, Murasoli Maran, the Minister of Commerce in the Vajpayee government, was instrumental in preventing developed countries from advancing their trade and commercial agendas. The UPA government maintained this strategy, risking opprobrium and occasional isolation from the interested parties. However, this did not deter India from opposing agendas that were perceived to be detrimental to the interests of not only its people but also the larger developing world.
• India added a moral dimension to the developing world’s monetary vision but was perceived as an obstructionist: India’s significant contribution to all of these fora was that it added a moral dimension to developed world’s monetary vision. However, in the process, India developed a reputation as a skeptic and obstructionist.

India’s smart shift in its approach

• While standing up for the developing world and zealously defending its strategic autonomy, India began to take a proactive role in finding solutions.
• The Paris Climate Summit in 2015 provided India with its first significant opportunity to highlight its new priorities. It was critical to securing the climate agreement while ensuring that the interests of the developing world were not jeopardized.
• In the words of Prime Minister Modi: PM PM Modi cogently articulated this stand on the eve of the Summit: “Justice demands that, with what little carbon we can safely burn, developing countries are allowed to grow. The lifestyles of a few must not crowd out opportunities for the many who are still in their early stages of development.” Developed countries agreed to the principle of “common and differentiated responsibility” as a result of India’s efforts.
• INDCs were successfully persuaded by India: India successfully persuaded developed countries to agree to the formulation of “intended nationally determined contributions,” or INDCs, rather than externally imposed targets.
• Through “Vaccine Maitri,” India emerged as a powerful player during the Covid pandemic response: India’s arrival on the global stage as an important player was bolstered by its constructive response during the Covid pandemic. In addition to vaccinating its billion-plus citizens, India came to the aid of more than 90 countries by ensuring a timely supply of vaccines through its “Vaccine Maitri” program.
• Excellent economic recovery in the post-Covid era: India’s growing importance is visible in a variety of ways. Its post-Covid economic recovery has been laudable, with the World Bank revising its 2022 GDP growth projections from 6.5 percent to 6.9 percent. According to the IMF, it is 6.8 percent, while the rest of the world is expected to grow at 4.9 percent.

India in a new year

• Stronger ties with African nations: The India Africa Forum Summit (IAFS), founded by then-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2008 as a triennial event, convened for the third time in 2015 in Delhi. PM Modi took a special interest in strengthening ties with African nations, which resulted in the Summit’s highest-ever participation. It is critical to restarting the process.
• India’s critical role in the Russia-Ukraine war: At the Bali G20 Summit, India played a critical role in ensuring that both Russia and its critics, such as the United States, had their say on the Russia-Ukraine war in a dignified and uninterrupted manner. India, for its part, conveyed to the Russian leadership that this was not the time for war. The new year will present an opportunity for India to play a role in bringing the war to an end.
• Possibility of establishing a new agenda for the global public good: As chair of the G20, India has the opportunity to set a new agenda in front of the world’s most powerful group of nations. It has always worked for the prudent sharing of global public goods in the past. It is now time to launch similar initiatives for global digital and genetic goods.
  

Way forward

• India must continue to be the voice of the global south: In order to achieve its goals, India must not lose sight of the principles that it has always upheld. It must continue to be the Global South’s voice.
• The emphasis on the neighborhood must be increased: India’s diplomatic, strategic, and political investments in Asia, Africa, and Latin America must be increased.
• ASEAN IOR must pay more attention: With SAARC failing and BIMSTEC dead in the water, India’s focus on the ASEAN and Indian Ocean region must expand. India’s Act East policy requires more vigor.
• India must incorporate moral dimensions into new technological developments: In global politics, India has always supported moralism. The Indian side is also using traditional wisdom to achieve global good in climate talks. India must incorporate a moral dimension into new technological developments.
• India must take the lead in regulating technologies for the sake of humanity’s future: The advent of artificial intelligence and genetic manipulation technologies will rock the world. These technologies will devastate humanity’s future if they are not globally regulated on time.

@the end

The country is starting off the new year on a high note. It now controls the leadership of major multilateral organizations such as the G20 and the SCO. Thus, the new year will provide India with the opportunity to realize its global power ambitions. However, opportunities come with risks. By keeping the border tense, China may try to limit India’s ambitions. India must strike a harmonious balance.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a-role-for-india-in-a-world-wide-web/article66282483.ece

The presidency, which India recently assumed for the period 1 December 2022-30 November 2023, will likely open more avenues for cooperation on multiple fronts with countries such as Saudi Arabia, a key member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and also a G20 member.

India-Saudi Arabia Bond

• Fourth largest trading partner: India-Saudi Arabia relations have grown comprehensive and robust in recent years, with the kingdom not only becoming New Delhi’s fourth largest trading partner but also an important collaborator in the joint fight against all forms of terrorism, money laundering, and terror financing.
• 18% of India’s energy imports: It is worth noting that bilateral trade in the fiscal year 2021-2022 stood at US$42.8 billion, and the kingdom alone accounts for 18% of India’s energy imports, reflecting the country’s importance in New Delhi’s energy and economic security calculus.
• Collaboration on the defense corridor: At the same time, military-security and defense cooperation has gained traction, owing to a shared set of security threats and challenges, as well as the respective governments’ desire to collaborate in the defense industrial sector (within the ambit of their military modernization programs).
• Cooperation in non-oil fields: The two countries’ ties are no longer solely focused on oil and energy trade (as has been the case in the past), but both sides have begun to explore the possibility of cooperating in areas such as renewable energy, climate change, healthcare, food security, education, technology, and so on.

Partnership in Green and clean energy

• Collaboration with Indian firms: In November 2020, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged foreign investors to “invest on their own” or collaborate with Indian firms in the country’s green energy sector.
• Reducing reliance on hydrocarbons: Similarly, Saudi Arabia is investing in the same sector in order to reduce its reliance on a hydrocarbon-based economy.
• Saudi Vision 2030 program: In line with its Saudi Vision 2030 program, it launched (2021) the Saudi Green Initiative which works on “increasing Saudi Arabia’s reliance on clean energy, offsetting emissions, and protecting the environment.
• Both countries have set lofty goals: Riyadh, ushering in a new era of energy diplomacy, is forming alliances with countries that share similar goals. This has greatly facilitated the need to expand cooperation with India in the field of renewable energy. While the Indian government aims to generate 450 gigatonnes of electricity from renewable and clean sources by 2030, Saudi Arabia aims for 50% by then.

Cooperation between India and Saudi Arabia in the health sector and during Covid19

• Cooperation with the West Asian region: India has increased its healthcare-related engagements with the wider West Asian region, particularly in areas such as vaccine production, joint medical research, and the exchange of best-fit practices.
• Healthcare professionals to Saudi Arabia: At the height of the aforementioned pandemic, the Indian government aided its Saudi counterpart in combating the outbreak, primarily by dispatching hundreds of Indian healthcare professionals.
• Acceptance of vaccines: Saudi Arabia was also one of the few countries that recognized “Serum Institute of India’s Covishield as an approved COVID-19 vaccine” for any visitors planning to enter the kingdom.
• MoU on health and medical products: The Indo-Saudi Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on health and medical products regulations, signed during Modi’s 2019 visit to Riyadh, could act as a catalyst in elevating the interactions from their current level.

Cooperation in Food Security

• Investment by the UAE and Saudi Arabia: It should be noted that, in 2019, the UAE and Saudi Arabia GCC states decided to invest in India’s organic and food processing industries as a precaution against food insecurity.
• Food cooperation is a win-win situation: With India’s expertise in crop production and overall agricultural activities, as well as its status as a net exporter of agricultural commodities (particularly rice), strengthening partnerships could be extremely beneficial for the people of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other GCC countries that continue to rely on external sources for food security, owing to a lack of fertile soil.

@the end

While India-Saudi Arabia relations are expected to strengthen further, there is also the possibility of collaboration beyond this bilateral engagement. This is because, in the emerging international order, there is a growing call for a collective response to the world’s multidimensional crises.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-saudi-collaboration-holds-promise-of-shared-growth-prosperity-says-jaishankar/article65878718.ece

Russia is commemorating two anniversaries: the 100th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s founding and the 31st anniversary of its dissolution. The Soviet Union was established on December 30, 1922, following the Bolshevik Revolution of November 1917. Until December 26, 1991, when it was dissolved.

What does India think of Russia?

• Special Strategic Partner: Vladimir Putin’s Russia is still regarded as the Soviet Union’s heir and as a special strategic partner.
• The Ukraine war has had little impact on the ties: Putin’s aggression against Ukraine and his brutal bombing of its civilian population, which Moscow claims is an integral part of Russia, has had little impact on how the Indian political classes view the crisis.
• Russia as an anti-imperialist power: The Soviet Union has been viewed solely through the ideological lens of progressive politics nationalist, internationalist, communist, and anti-imperialist on the left and center of the Indian political spectrum. That lens, however, is divorced from Russia’s history and the ongoing battle for its political soul.
• Russia as a lifelong friend: Within the strategic community, the belief that Russia is India’s “forever best friend” leaves little room for a more nuanced view of Russia’s domestic and international politics.

Russia’s behavior through Russian History

• The Bolshevik Revolution: Initially aimed at destroying the Russian Orthodox Church, it was eventually used to deify the Soviet state and lent a religious hue to the claim of Russian exceptionalism.
• Alliance with Orthodoxy: Putin has elevated his relationship with the Russian Orthodox Church. Today, the effort to retake Ukraine is considered a “holy war” by Russian nationalists.
• After WWII, Soviet Russia insisted that fellow communist states had only “limited sovereignty,” and that Moscow had the right to intervene to keep them on the straight and narrow path of socialism and prevent their destabilization. This impulse drove military incursions into Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968), and Afghanistan (1979).
• Russia has not given up Imperialist tradition: In claiming that Ukraine has no sovereignty of its own, Putin is merely following that imperial tradition as well as the conviction that Ukraine, Belarus and Russian-speaking people everywhere are part of the “Russkiy Mir” or the “Russian world”.
• Mao’s assessment of Russia: Mao began to characterize Russia as an “imperial power” after separating from the Russian communists. Mao was well aware of the ongoing conflict between the Chinese and Russian empires.

Analyzing Russia’s internal politics

• Weak federalism by Lenin: The founder of the Soviet Union, Vladimir Lenin warned against the dangers of “great Russian chauvinism”. He was adamant about establishing a federal polity with the right of various nationalities to secede.
• Strong soviet by Stalin: Stalin, however, turned Russian federalism into a hollow shell and erased the difference between the “Soviet Union” and “Soviet Russia”.
• Putin refuses to recognize Ukraine: Putin chastised Lenin for giving Ukraine a separate identity. “Modern Ukraine can rightly be called ‘Vladimir Ilyich Lenin’s Ukraine,” Putin said.
• Stalling the democratic process: Moscow’s enduring autocratic impulse, rooted in the stalled democratic revolution. Historically, Russia’s fear of disorder has led to a high level of trust in strong leaders.
• The tendency to centralize: The frequent but unsuccessful attempts at political liberalization in Russia have created fertile ground for leaders like Putin to consolidate power, increasing the likelihood of grave miscalculation.

What should India’s policy toward Russia be?

• Not criticizing Russia directly: Official India is not blind to the fact that Putin’s “special military operation” has gone horribly wrong, despite its reluctance to directly criticize Russian aggression.
• Observing the changing world order: India will inevitably find ways to adjust to the tectonic shifts in the world order caused by Putin’s miscalculation.
• Learning from Putin’s blunder: The Indian political and strategic communities must confront the numerous complex factors that contributed to Putin’s egregious mistakes in Ukraine.

@the end

To understand how the Ukrainian conflict will unfold and its long-term implications for India, India’s discourse must pay more attention to Russia’s turbulent history and its troubled relations with its Central European neighbors.

Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361450288_The_Russian-Ukrainian_war_An_explanatory_essay_through_the_theoretical_lens_of_international_relations