Category: International Relations

• After the US said Russia was not complying with their last remaining arms treaty, the New START treaty, Russia accused the US of destroying weapons control agreements.

New START Treaty

• The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) agreement, which limits the number of deployed nuclear warheads, missiles, and bombers, is set to expire in 2021 unless renewed.
• The treaty limits the United States and Russia to a total of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, which is significantly lower than the Cold War caps.
• Former US President Barack Obama and then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed it in 2010.
• It is one of the most important constraints on the deployment of nuclear weapons by superpowers.

The History of US-Russia Nuclear Relations

• The United States has formally withdrawn from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF)
• The agreement required the two countries to eliminate all ground-based missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometres.

When did the process of nuclear disarmament begin?

• The two countries began arms control talks on three fronts in 1985.
• The first dealt with strategic weapons with ranges greater than 5,500 kilometres, leading to the START treaty in 1991.
• Both sides were limited to 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles and 6,000 warheads.
• A second track dealt with intermediate-range missiles, which resulted in the 1987 INF Treaty.
• A third track, Nuclear and Space Talks, was intended to address Soviet concerns about the United States’ Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), but it produced no results.

The Success of INF

• Despite the fact that no nuclear warheads were dismantled, the INF Treaty was hailed as a great disarmament treaty.
• Other countries were not restricted because it was a bilateral agreement.
• The INF was in place by 1991. The USSR destroyed 1,846 Pershing and cruise missiles, while the US destroyed 846.
• Associated manufacturing facilities were also shut down.
• The INF Treaty was the first to include stringent verification measures, such as on-site inspections.

How has the nuclear situation evolved?

• With the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in late 1991, former Soviet allies joined NATO and became EU members.
• To maintain its technological lead, the United States was investing in missile defence and conventional global precision strike capabilities.
• The United States announced its unilateral withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2001. (ABM Treaty).
• The US also blamed Russia for failing to meet the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty’s ‘zero-yield’ standard (CTBT). This could signal the start of a new nuclear arms race.

Implications of the New Beginning

• The New START Act of 2011 expired in 2021. It could follow in the footsteps of the INF Treaty.
• The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review called for the development of new nuclear weapons, including low-yield weapons.
• With its nuclear force goals in mind, China is preparing to run its test site all year.
• CTBT requires ratification by the United States, China, Iran, Israel, and Egypt, as well as adherence by India, Pakistan, and North Korea. It is unlikely to be implemented.

@the end

• A new nuclear arms race could be just the start. Because multiple countries are involved, it may become more complicated.
• Technological advancements are bringing the cyber and space domains into conflict. It increases the likelihood of an escalation.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/moscow-says-washington-destroyed-arms-control-pacts/article66459000.ece

The talks in Washington this week between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his American counterpart Jake Sullivan resulted in the announcement of a new road map for deeper military and techno-economic cooperation between the two countries, known as iCET.

Background: The idea was first proposed at the QUAD summit.

• The idea was first floated during a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summit in Tokyo last May.

Ups and downs in US-India high-technology cooperation

• First steps in India’s nuclear and space programmes: Cooperation in high technology has long been a focal point of US-India relations. In the 1950s and 1960s, significant contributions from the United States were made to India’s nuclear and space programmes.
• Nuclear sanctions imposed by the United States and reduced cooperation: However, US nuclear sanctions imposed in the 1970s gradually reduced the scope of bilateral high-tech cooperation.
• Cooperation on the civil nuclear initiative has been renewed: The historic civil nuclear initiative of 2005 paved the way for new technological collaboration.
• Political ambiguity Bureaucratic inertia hampered the best use: However, residual barriers to technology transfer in Washington and Delhi’s political ambivalence and bureaucratic inertia prevented the best use of the new opportunities.
• The iCET process and future opportunities: The iCET process, which will be monitored and driven from the PMO in Delhi and the White House in Washington, should improve the coherence of this round of India-US technological engagement.

What exactly is the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies?

• Collaboration in emerging technologies: The iCET is a collaboration between India and the United States to develop important and novel technologies.
• Collaboration areas include, for example: The iCET entails collaboration in a variety of areas, including quantum computing, semiconductors, 5G and 6G wireless infrastructure, and civilian space projects like lunar exploration.
• Adding depth and breadth to an already growing partnership: The iCET’s goal is to increase technology interaction between the United States and India while also potentially adding strategic depth and breadth to their already growing partnership.
• PMO and White House directly monitor: The iCET will be overseen and directed by the Prime Minister’s Office in Delhi and the White House in Washington.

The Importance of iCET in India

• The significance of iCET in an assertive China: The growing convergence of Indian and US interests in managing the security, economic, and technological challenges posed by a rising and assertive China adds urgency to the iCET.
• India’s alternative to reliance on Russian military technology: India is also attempting to reduce its reliance on Russian weapons and military technology by manufacturing more weapons at home in collaboration with Western countries.
• Increase in India’s technological capabilities: The iCET would give India access to cutting-edge technology and expertise in critical and emerging areas.
• Economic growth: Collaboration on new and important technologies can lead to more business between India and the United States, which can help the economy grow by bringing more investment and job opportunities.

Another area of focus is defence production cooperation.

• The two sides are also interested in collaborating on defence production.
• While much of this collaboration will need to be fleshed out in the coming months, Doval and Sullivan did announce one concrete step: the production of a fighter jet engine in India.
• GE Aerospace has applied for an export licence for jet engine production and technology transfer to Indian entities in stages. Washington promises to process this application as soon as possible. This aligns well with Delhi’s plans to modernise its ageing defence industrial base.

@the end

If implemented with speed and purpose, the bilateral Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) could add new strategic depth and breadth to India and the United States’ expanding engagement.

Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/icet-india-and-us-unveil-ambitious-roadmap-for-defence-and-tech-partnership-101675248707027.html

The talks in Washington this week between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his American counterpart Jake Sullivan resulted in the announcement of a new road map for deeper military and techno-economic cooperation between the two countries, known as iCET.

Background: The idea was first proposed at the QUAD summit

• The idea was first floated during a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) summit in Tokyo last May.

Ups and downs in US-India high-technology cooperation

• First steps in India’s nuclear and space programmes: Cooperation in high technology has long been a focal point of US-India relations. In the 1950s and 1960s, significant contributions from the United States were made to India’s nuclear and space programmes.
• Nuclear sanctions imposed by the United States and reduced cooperation: However, US nuclear sanctions imposed in the 1970s gradually reduced the scope of bilateral high-tech cooperation.
• Cooperation on the civil nuclear initiative has been renewed: The historic civil nuclear initiative of 2005 paved the way for new technological collaboration.
• Political ambiguity Bureaucratic inertia hampered the best use: However, residual barriers to technology transfer in Washington and Delhi’s political ambivalence and bureaucratic inertia prevented the best use of the new opportunities.
• The iCET process and future opportunities: The iCET process, which will be monitored and driven from the PMO in Delhi and the White House in Washington, should improve the coherence of this round of India-US technological engagement.

What exactly is the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies?

• Collaboration in emerging technologies: The iCET is a collaboration between India and the United States to develop important and novel technologies.
• Collaboration areas include, for example: The iCET entails collaboration in a variety of areas, including quantum computing, semiconductors, 5G and 6G wireless infrastructure, and civilian space projects like lunar exploration.
• Adding depth and breadth to an already growing partnership: The iCET’s goal is to increase technology interaction between the United States and India while also potentially adding strategic depth and breadth to their already growing partnership.
• PMO and White House directly monitor: The iCET will be overseen and directed by the Prime Minister’s Office in Delhi and the White House in Washington.

The Importance of iCET in India

• The significance of iCET in an assertive China: The growing convergence of Indian and US interests in managing the security, economic, and technological challenges posed by a rising and assertive China adds urgency to the iCET.
• India’s alternative to reliance on Russian military technology: India is also attempting to reduce its reliance on Russian weapons and military technology by manufacturing more weapons at home in collaboration with Western countries.
• Increase in India’s technological capabilities: The iCET would give India access to cutting-edge technology and expertise in critical and emerging areas.
• Economic growth: Collaboration on new and important technologies can lead to more business between India and the United States, which can help the economy grow by bringing more investment and job opportunities.

Another area of focus is defence production cooperation

• The two sides are also interested in collaborating on defence production.
• While much of this collaboration will need to be fleshed out in the coming months, Doval and Sullivan did announce one concrete step: the production of a fighter jet engine in India.
• GE Aerospace has applied for an export licence for jet engine production and technology transfer to Indian entities in stages. Washington promises to process this application as soon as possible. This aligns well with Delhi’s plans to modernise its ageing defence industrial base.

@the end

If implemented with speed and purpose, the bilateral Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) could add new strategic depth and breadth to India and the United States’ expanding engagement.

Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/icet-india-and-us-unveil-ambitious-roadmap-for-defence-and-tech-partnership-101675248707027.html

The US has urged Israel and the Palestinians to de-escalate tensions amid a surge in violence in the West Bank region.

What is the location of West Bank?

• The West Bank is a landlocked territory in Western Asia near the Mediterranean coast that comprises the majority of the Palestinian territories.
• It is bounded to the east by Jordan and the Dead Sea, and to the south, west, and north by Israel.

Discussion point: Anti-Semitism

• Many theocratic countries have an official policy of anti-Semitism (hatred of Jews) (created by divine orders of religion).
• This includes the entire Arab world, Turkey’s self-proclaimed caliphate, and even Pakistan.
• Jews, the world’s micro-minority religion, were denied entry into their homeland.

The Israel-Palestine Conflict

• The land to which Jews and Palestinians lay claim to was under the Ottoman Empire and then the British Empire in early 20th century.
• Palestinians — Arabs from the same region — want to establish a state called Palestine in that region.
• The dispute between Israelis and Palestinians is over who owns what land and how it is administered.
• Jews fleeing persecution in Europe at the time desired to establish a Jewish state on what they believed to be their ancient homeland.
• At the time, the Arabs resisted, claiming ownership of the land. At the time, the land was known as Palestine.
• The United Kingdom declared its support for the establishment of a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine in the Balfour Declaration of 1917.
• Arabs resisted, resulting in violence.

Jews into West Bank: Arab hinterland in Israel

• According to a history published by the University of Central Arkansas, 75,000 Jews emigrated to Palestine between 1922 and 1926, and 60,000 Jews emigrated in 1935.
• It goes on to say that Palestinian Arabs asked the UK to stop Jewish emigration, but the UK refused. There were violent incidents that resulted in the deaths of approximately 500 people.
• The British Mandate for Palestine went into effect in 1923.
• The League of Nations, the failed predecessor of the United Nations, issued the document (UN).
• The mandate charged the United Kingdom with establishing a Jewish national homeland in the region.
• In 1936, the British government proposed partitioning Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.

How did the situation deteriorate?

• In 1947, Britain referred the Palestine issue to the United Nations, which devised a partition plan.
• It made two proposals. The majority proposal is two separate states joined economically, and the minority proposal is a single bi-national state made up of autonomous Jewish and Palestinian areas.
• The Jewish community supported the first of these proposals, while the Arab community opposed both.

Israel’s sovereignty

• Israel declared its independence in May 1948. For Arabs, this was a startling development.
• The Arab countries of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Egypt immediately invaded the newly declared country.
• When the war ended, Israel regained some of the territory previously granted to Palestinian Arabs under the 1947 UN resolution.
• It also retained control of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Resolving the conflict

• The two-state solution refers to a regional arrangement in which Israeli and Palestinian states coexist.
• However, such a solution has not emerged in recent decades.
• The two-state solution, as stated at the outset and briefly explained in the roots of the conflict, means two separate states for Israelis and Palestinians.

Why it hasn’t worked out?

• There are four main reasons why the two-state solution has not materialized by now:

[1] Borders

• There is no agreement on how to draw the lines separating the two proposed states.
• Many people believe that borders should be drawn before 1967.
• Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula, Gaza Strip, West Bank, Old City of Jerusalem, and Golan Heights during the 1967 Israeli-Arab war.
• Israel is unwilling to relinquish these gains. Sinai was returned to Egypt in 1982.
• Furthermore, there is the issue of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

[2] Question of Jerusalem

• Both Israel and the Palestinians claim Jerusalem as their capital, claiming it to be central to their religion and culture.
• The two-state solution typically calls for dividing it into an Israeli West and a Palestinian East, but drawing the line is difficult because Jewish, Muslim, and Christian holy sites overlap.
• Israel has declared Jerusalem its “undivided capital,” effectively annexing its eastern half, and has begun to build infrastructure that will cement Israeli control over the city.

[3] Refugees

• During the 1948 war, a large number of Palestinians were forced to flee.
• They and their 5 million descendants demand the right to return. This is unacceptable to Israel.
• The return of these people would end the Jewish demographic majority, as well as the idea of a democratic and Jewish Israel.

[4] Security

• Security concerns are also important to Israel, which is constantly harassed by the terrorist group Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip.
• On occasion, Hamas and other Islamist groups in Gaza launch rockets into Israel.
• Furthermore, there are concerns about Palestinian attacks within Israel.
• In March and April of this year, at least 18 Israelis were killed in Palestinian attacks inside Israel.
• During the same time period, 27 Palestinians were killed, including those who carried out attacks inside Israel. Palestinians are also concerned.
• Security means the end of foreign military occupation for Palestinians.

Why the two-state solution is needed?

• Apart from fulfilling the fundamental desire of both Jews and Arabs for their own states, supporters of two-state solutions argue that it must be supported because its alternatives are simply unworkable.
• A unified Israel, West Bank, and Gaza would reduce Jews to a minority.
• At the same time, Jews would be a significant minority in such a state, which would annoy the Arab majority.

Moral reasoning for a two-state solution

• It states that one person’s aspirations should not be prioritised over the aspirations of others.
• It is a conflict between two distinct groups of people over collective rights.
• Jews are the world’s micro-minority, existing on a very small piece of land.
• Depriving Israeli Jews of a Jewish state or Palestinians of a Palestinian state would be a surrender of one group’s aspirations to the vision of another.

Way forward

• According to India, the only way to achieve long-term peace in Israel and Palestine is through a negotiated two-State solution.
• This can be accomplished by establishing a sovereign, independent, and viable Palestinian state within secure and recognised borders.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/29/israeli-guards-kill-palestinian-near-west-bank-settlement#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20said%202022,Israeli%20settlers%20north%20of%20Ramallah.

India has announced its intention to amend the 62-year-old Indus Water Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan.

Why did India issue a warning to Pakistan?

• Unwanted disputes over Indian hydropower projects: India cited Pakistan’s unwillingness to settle disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir.
• Dragging arbitration: India objected to Pakistan’s “unilateral” decision to seek arbitration in The Hague.
• A foul cry: Pakistan’s move to press the World Bank for the establishment of a Court of Arbitration ran counter to the World Bank’s pre-existing channel of dispute resolution through a “neutral expert” appointed by the World Bank.
• Renegotiating the IWT: The decision to notify Pakistan is a significant step that could lead to the unravelling and renegotiation of the water-sharing treaty.

What is Pakistan’s beef?

• Back in 2006, Pakistan objected to India’s construction of the 330 MW Kishenganga hydroelectric project on the Jhelum River.
• It then opposed plans to build the 850 MW Ratle Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab River.
• Given that the Jhelum and Chenab were “western tributaries,” India and Pakistan disagreed on whether the technical details of the hydel projects were in accordance with the treaty.

What exactly is the Indus Water Treaty (IWT)?

• The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty negotiated by the World Bank and signed in Karachi in 1960.
• This agreement granted India control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers in India: the Beas, the Ravi, and the Sutlej.
• Pakistan was granted control over three “western” rivers in India: the Indus, the Chenab, and the Jhelum.

The foundation of the treaty

• Water sharing on an equitable basis: Partitioning the Indus River System was unavoidable following India’s partition in 1947.
• Empathizing with the Division: The sharing formula developed after lengthy negotiations divided the Indus system in half.

Why is India reconsidering this treaty?

• Pakistan is heavily favoured: It may have appeared equitable, but India still gave Pakistan 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system.
• Unnecessarily generous: It also gave Pakistan Rs 83 crore in sterling to help build replacement canals from western rivers. Such generosity from an upper riparian is unusual.
• Reclaiming riparian rights: In exchange for complete rights on the eastern rivers, India gave up its upper riparian position on the western rivers. The availability of water was critical to India’s development plans.

What rights were granted to India?

• The treaty allowed India to use the water from western rivers for limited irrigation purposes.
• Unrestricted commercial use: It granted power generation, domestic industrial, and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, and so on.
• It establishes precise regulations for the construction of any water or hydel project.
• Addressing Pakistan’s concerns: The pact also grants Pakistan the right to object to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

The importance of the treaty

• It is a treaty that is frequently cited as an example of the possibilities for peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
• It has survived numerous hostilities, including three major wars.
• Most fruitful bilateral treaty: It is regarded internationally as an example of successful conflict resolution between two countries that were previously at odds.

Why has the treaty survived?

• It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters from its own rivers.
• Water freedom: India has refrained from weaponizing water. Pakistan cannot exist in the absence of this treaty.
• Significant reliance Pak economy: The Indus and riparian rivers provide water for approximately 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture.
• Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians continue to live in luxury.
• Credibility of India: Backtracking on the treaty could harm India’s reputation as a trustworthy global partner who respects bilateral agreements.

Why should India rethink?

• Terrorist blow: PM Modi’s words “Blood and water cannot flow together” are relevant.
• A tit for tat: If India so desires, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by refusing to sign this treaty.

The way forward

• India’s role as a responsible upper riparian adhering to the treaty’s provisions has been remarkable.
• However, India should reconsider or renegotiate this treaty.
• Terrorism affects Indians in the same way that water affects ordinary Pakistanis.

Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/intransigence-india-notifies-pakistan-of-plans-to-amend-indus-waters-treaty-101674799700226.html

The Group of 20 (G20) has emerged as the primary forum for international economic and financial cooperation. India assumed the presidency of the powerful grouping G20 on 1 December 2022, symbolising the motto and showcasing its philosophies of “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, or “One Earth, One Family, One Future”.

What does One Earth, One Family, One Future imply?

• India has committed to focusing its year as chairman on “healing our ‘One Earth,’ creating harmony within our ‘One Family,’ and giving hope for our ‘One Future’ and LiFE” (Lifestyle for Environment).

What is Troika?

• The troika means previous, current, and incoming presidency which comprise Indonesia, India, and Brazil, respectively.
• In these turbulent economic times, the troika is driving the global agenda at the G20.
• The G20 is more than just a policy forum; it is tasked with reconciling the irreconcilable.
• The group’s number of talks and years together has resulted in a mixed bag of success.

How India should organise its global agenda: Principles that have been proposed

• Democratizing the agenda-setting process: It is critical to bring all of the partner nations together to understand their priorities when developing the global agenda. It will ensure diversity, equity, inclusivity, long-term commitment, and sustainability. This can also help to ensure that domestic policies are consistent with global priorities.
• Strike a balance between the needs of developing and developed countries: Because India bears a greater burden, it should not appear biassed. Similarly, developed countries should be more cautious with their abundant natural resources. We must think in terms of multilateralism to create a win-win situation rather than a zero-sum game.
• It is critical to concentrate on predetermined priorities: It is critical to prevent the G20 from suffering from over-expansion of its mandate, as other multilateral forums such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) have. While being ambitious, it is critical to set defined, limited long-term priorities.
• Set specific, measurable, and attainable goals: Measurable outcomes with short-, medium-, and long-term goals are essential. In addition to ensuring inclusivity, sustainability, and accountability, financial considerations must be made.
• Avoid reinventing the wheel: Duplication of efforts is necessary to encourage faster mutual growth. It is critical to avoid duplication of existing international institutions, fragmentation of financial resources, and a weakening of the existing multilateral organisations’ coordinating role. The ‘collaborative and cooperative frameworks are critical to successful outcomes.
• To promote solidarity, prejudice-free dialogues are required: Prejudices on international forums can endanger global security. As an antidote, dialogue can help with conflict prevention, management, and resolution.
• Mutual protection is required: Mutual protection from disguised elements of neocolonialism and hegemony is critical for breaking down socio-cultural and geopolitical barriers between the Global South and the Global North.
• Antyodaya (rise of the last person) principle: The global lens must capture every aspect of a community through inclusive dialogues, from the most marginalised to the most privileged. It is critical to establish global and national vertical and horizontal plans with the ‘last person standing in line’ in mind.

India’s current international image

• India’s role in global governance: While India’s successes are being assessed and unprecedented hopes are being expressed about our future, the country’s trust in the global governance architecture is evident through several examples from the recent past, like the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in India as well as remarkable vaccine diplomacy initiative ‘Vaccine Maitri’.
• Fastest-growing economy: With one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, the country has earned its stripes through difficult external and internal circumstances.
• India ranks first in the global climate change performance index: Similarly, India has been named one of the top five countries in the world in terms of Climate Change Performance Index. Furthermore, it has taken the lead in accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources.
• Economic nature of social capitalism: India has earned a geopolitical sweet spot in the world thanks to its social capitalism.

@the end

India has the potential to lead the G20 agenda in a way that the world has never seen before. Keeping the fundamental principles in mind when developing agendas, action plans, and decisions through collaborative efforts has the potential to produce revolutionary and positive results. The vision of shaping a new paradigm of human-centric globalisation is promising, assuming equal support from the Global North and South communities.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indias-g20-presidency-setting-the-world-agenda-8301230/

Thousands of Indian IT professionals in the United States who have lost their jobs as a result of recent layoffs at companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are now struggling to find new jobs within the time limits imposed by their work visas.

Recent layoff is US

• Since November of last year, nearly 200,000 IT workers have been laid off, including some at record levels at Google, Microsoft, Facebook, and Amazon.
• According to industry insiders, 30 to 40% of them are Indian IT professionals, with a significant number on H-1B and L1 visas.

What one means by Lay-Off?

• A layoff is the temporary or permanent termination of employment by an employer for reasons unrelated to the employee’s performance.
• Employees may be laid off when companies seek to reduce costs, as a result of a drop in demand for their products or services, a seasonal closure, or during an economic downturn.
• Employees who are laid off lose all wages and company benefits but are eligible for unemployment insurance or compensation (typically in USA).

Why do businesses resort to layoffs?

• Cost-cutting measures: One of the most common reasons for layoffs is that the company decides to cut costs in some way. The need may arise because the company is not making enough profits to cover its expenses or because it requires significant additional funds to address debt repayment.
• Staffing redundancies: Layoffs can also occur when a company needs to eliminate some positions due to overstaffing, outsourcing, or role changes. A company may wish to eliminate redundant positions in order to improve the efficiency of its operations.
• Relocation: Moving the company’s operations from one location to another may necessitate the layoff of some employees. The initial location’s closure will have an impact not only on the workers who are laid off, but also on the economy of the surrounding community.
• Merger or buyout: If a business is bought out or decides to merge with another, the change might lead to a change in the company’s leadership and corporate direction. If there’s new management, the chances are that they’ll come up with new goals and plans, and this can lead to layoffs.
• Immediate Causes of the Lay-Off Pandemic Boom: During the pandemic, demand increased because people were on lockdown and spending a lot of time on the internet. The overall consumption increased, prompting companies to increase output in order to meet market demands.
• Overhiring during the pandemic: To meet the demand, many tech companies went on a hiring binge, expecting the boom to last even after the pandemic. However, as the restrictions were relaxed and people began to leave their homes, consumption fell, resulting in significant losses for these large technology companies. Because of the sudden increase in demand, some of these resources were hired at a higher cost.
• Fear of recession: As demand returns to pre-Covid levels, and the debt bubble appears to be about to burst, these companies are cutting costs by closing low-performing projects and laying off the excess and high-cost resources they hired to accelerate growth.
• The Russia-Ukraine war has also contributed to layoffs by making the market more volatile. The stock market’s volatility demonstrates this clearly.
• Inflation: Rising inflation has had a significant impact on several global economies, resulting in a job market crisis. To overcome all of these ups and downs, the world is currently hitting the reset button.

Various US Visa Programs

1) H-1B visa

• What exactly is it: Individuals who “work in a specialty occupation, participate in cooperative research and development projects administered by the US Department of Defense, or are fashion models with national or international acclaim and recognition” are eligible for the H-1B visa category.
• Who is protected: The H-1B visa is best known as a visa for skilled tech workers, but it is also used in other industries such as health care and the media.

2) H-2B visa

• What it is: The H-2B programme, according to USCIS, allows US employers or agents to “bring foreign nationals to the United States to fill temporary non-agricultural jobs.”
• Who is protected: They are commonly used by seasonal workers in industries such as landscaping, forestry, hospitality, and construction.

3) J-1 visa

• What it is: The J-1 visa is an exchange visitor visa for individuals who have been approved to participate in work-and-study programmes in the United States.
• Who is protected: Interns, trainees, teachers, camp counsellors, au pairs, and participants in summer work travel programmes are among those affected.

4) L-1 visa

• What it is: The L1 Visa is reserved for managerial or executive professionals transferring to the US from within the same company, or a subsidiary of it. The L1 Visa can also be used for a foreign company opening up US operations.
• Who is protected: There are two subtypes of visas within the L1 Visa.
• Managers and executives can apply for an L1A visa.
• L1B visas are available for those with specialised knowledge.

Why is this important?

• A significant number of Indian IT professionals on non-immigrant work visas such as H-1B are L1.
• They are now scrambling for options to stay in the US and find a new job within the few months allowed under these foreign work visas after losing their jobs and changing their visa status.

Effects of Layoffs

• Market competition is fierce: Layoffs are a painful but unavoidable fact of life in a market economy subject to competition and trade.
• Massive loss for workers: Layoffs can be emotionally and financially damaging to affected workers, as well as their families, communities, colleagues, and other businesses.
• Reduced customer loyalty: When a company fires employees, it sends a message to customers that the company is in trouble.
• Emotional Distress: Although the person who is laid off suffers the most, remaining employees also suffer emotionally. Employees who work in fear are less likely to be productive.

India should learn from this.

• Indian startups grew at a much faster rate than those in neighbouring regions.
• However, the layoffs serve as a stark reminder that the larger the startups became, the harder they fell.
• Just because a startup had a high valuation did not mean that its employees’ jobs were secure.

Way ahead

• Voluntary retirement programme: This allows people to transition smoothly into retirement.
• Reduce extras: If a company is laying off workers to cut costs, it can look for other ways to save money. For example, company executives can halt additional hiring or reduce or eliminate bonuses.
• Consider establishing a virtual office: Another way to save money is to keep only the most important employees on-site and send the rest of the employees home to work remotely.
• Increase unpaid time off: A business owner can save money by increasing unpaid time off rather than eliminating positions.

Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/laidoff-indian-techies-on-work-visa-struggle-for-new-job-in-us-101674452590330.html

The World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 in Davos, Switzerland, concluded Friday with a conference that began in a world that may have been fundamentally altered, but whose processes and outcomes remained largely unchanged.

The theme this year was ‘Cooperation in a Fragmented World’.

World Economic Forum (WEF)

• WEF, headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, is an international non-profit organisation dedicated to bringing together the public and private sectors to address global political, social, and economic issues.
• It was established in 1971 by Swiss-German economist and Professor Klaus Schwab in order to promote global cooperation on these most pressing issues.
• The World Economic Forum’s first meeting was held more than five decades ago in Davos, which has been the site of the annual gathering almost since its inception, and has also become a shorthand for the event.

Key economic takeaways from the World Economic Forum

• Positive economic outlook: Most business leaders were optimistic about the economy, with the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) appearing to be past the risk of a recession. China’s decision to lift its zero-covid curbs and reopen its doors contributed to the upbeat outlook.
• Central banks are warning: The major central banks warned that concerns remained and that they would keep interest rates high to keep inflation under control. Stay the course, for example, is the European Central Bank President’s mantra. The US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard was quoted as reminding investors that “inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time.
• Many people have speculated that China’s opening up could lead to an increase in energy consumption, driving up energy prices.
• Concerns for developing economies: As richer nations look inward, protecting their own workers, energy sufficiency, supply lines, and so on, concerns have been raised that this policy direction will harm developing economies.

Discussions about climate change and green energy at the World Economic Forum

• Green energy and financing are required: Everyone agreed on the importance of green energy and the need for more funding to combat climate change.
• GAEA initiative to raise $3 trillion in funding: According to the WEF’s website, the World Economic Forum launched the Giving to Amplify Earth Action (GAEA), a global initiative to fund and grow new and existing public, private, and philanthropic partnerships (PPPPs) to help unlock the $3 trillion in financing required each year to achieve net zero, reverse nature loss, and restore biodiversity by 2050.
• International Concerns and Reactions: The EU expressed concern about a US green energy law that benefits American-made products such as electric vehicles.
• New Initiatives and Collaborations: According to the Press Trust of India (PTI), more than 50 high-impact initiatives were launched at the event. 1.The Maharashtra Institution for Transformation (MITRA) joined forces with the Forum on Urban Transformation to provide strategic and technical guidance to the state government. 2. Telangana will establish a healthcare and life sciences thematic centre. 3. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations (CEPI) seeks to create new pandemic vaccines.

Ukraine wants more military and financial assistance.

• Military Aid and Financial Aid for Reconstruction: Ukraine maintained its demand for more military aid to fight Russia’s war, as well as more financial aid to rebuild after the war, arguing that reconstruction fund commitments should begin now, rather than after the war ends.
• President Zelenskyy’s Speech and Criticism of the United States and Germany: While Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a video message. In his speech, Zelenskyy indirectly criticised the United States and Germany for delaying the deployment of tanks to his country.

Criticism and defence of the Davos Event

• Spectacle of the Rich and Powerful Discussing Poverty and Climate: The jarring spectacle of the Davos event, where the uber-rich and powerful fly in on private jets to discuss poverty alleviation and climate action, has been criticised yet again.
• Meeting and interaction with decision-makers: Others, however, pointed out that, flaws and all, the conference provides an opportunity for many decision-makers to meet and interact with one another.
• The Importance of Communication and Conversation, According to the Economist: While the talks at Davos can be described as “highly-caffeinated speed dating,” as Economist editor-in-chief Zanny Minton Beddoes put it, more contact and communication is preferable to less contact and communication.

@the end

The World Economic Forum emphasised the critical need for green energy and climate change financing. Despite the fact that the event remained focused on business as usual, we can see that the WEF provided an opportunity for decision-makers to meet and interact, and over 50 high-impact initiatives were launched at the event.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/world-economic-forums-davos-2023-major-takeaways-8396436/#:~:text=Here%20are%20some%20key%20takeaways%20from%20WEF%20Davos%202023.&text=Most%20business%20leaders%20were%20upbeat,added%20to%20the%20positive%20outlook.

Japan, which invented the modern geopolitical concept of the Indo-Pacific, is now well on its way to changing the way we think about Asia-Europe relations. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s message during his recent trip to Europe was straightforward: the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific is inseparable.

How did Japan influence the Indo-Pacific concept?

• Japan is no longer alone in the Indo-Pacific: Kishida is determined to build strong military partnerships with Europe, building on the ideas of his predecessor, the late Shinzo Abe. Japan, South Korea, and Australia are bridging the gap between Asia and Europe, which were previously viewed as separate geopolitical theatres.
• South Korea increasing its profile in Europe: South Korea, which does not always agree with Japan, is also joining the party by increasing its profile in Europe. Seoul, for example, is selling major weapon platforms in Poland.
• Australia wants to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific: Australia, which has joined the US and UK in the AUKUS agreement, wants to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific as well.
• This process has been accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as the alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

The concept of Eurasia

• Many people used it as a catch-all phrase: Many people used the term Eurasia as a neutral term to describe the vast landmass that connected Europe and Asia.
• Separate political spheres: Despite continental continuity, Europe and Asia emerged over millennia as distinct political and cultural spheres.
• Russia as a European and Asian power: Russia, which straddles this space, saw itself as both a European and an Asian power, but had difficulty assimilating into either. When post-Soviet Russia’s efforts to integrate with the West faltered in the 2000s, it created the geopolitical constructs of Eurasia and Greater Eurasia.
• Putin’s Eurasian strategy included consolidating former Soviet space, regaining influence in Central Europe, forging a strong alliance with China, and limiting Western influence in the continental heartland.

China-Russia cooperation

• Geopolitical dynamics are changing: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin changed the geopolitical dynamic in Eurasia long before Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol turned to Europe.
• Putin travelled to Beijing last February to sign an agreement declaring an alliance without limits and no forbidden areas, just days before ordering his armies into Ukraine.
• China’s inclination toward Russia: China, which had made a largely successful effort to cultivate Europe since the 1990s, avoided taking sides in Europe’s conflicts with Russia on purpose. However, on the eve of the Ukraine war, Xi chose to lean toward Moscow by blaming NATO for the crisis.
• A different kind of Eurasian alliance: Putin and Xi unveiled a Eurasian alliance that they may have hoped would deliver the long-awaited demise of the West’s global hegemony. Instead, it strengthened the Western alliance in Europe while also laying the groundwork for a new kind of Eurasia, an alliance between China’s East Asian neighbours and Russia’s West European neighbours.

What are India’s Challenges?

• The rise of Eurasia makes it more difficult for India to ride on two boats at the same time: Previously, India could easily hunt with the maritime coalition the Quad in the Indo-Pacific while also running with the continental coalitions led by Russia and China.
• US Europe and Japan on one hand, China and Russia on the other: The conflict between the United States, Europe, and Japan on one hand, and China and Russia on the other, is now acute and shows no signs of abating.
• On the downside, India’s mounting security challenges from China on the Himalayan frontier, combined with the tightening embrace between Moscow and Beijing, will cast a darker shadow over India’s continental strategy in the coming days.
• Strategic capabilities in collaboration: On the plus side, the prospects for strengthening India’s strategic capabilities in collaboration with the United States and Europe, as well as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have never been better.

Opportunities may exist for India.

• Economic collaboration: Increased economic cooperation and trade between India and European and Asian countries
• India’s expanded role in international affairs: As a result of increased connectivity and cooperation, India has the potential to play a larger role in regional and global affairs.
• To address Indo-Pacific security concerns: Opportunities for India to strengthen ties with Japan and other countries in the region to address Indo-Pacific security concerns

@the end

In terms of economic cooperation and geopolitical influence, Japan’s strategy of promoting greater connectivity and cooperation between Europe and Asia may present both opportunities and challenges for India. To maximise opportunities and minimise challenges, India will need to carefully navigate and balance its relationships with various countries and groups in the region.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/in-light-of-china-russia-alliance-and-ukraine-conflict-india-and-the-new-eurasia-8388063/

To counter China’s proposed 60,000 MW Medog hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River, India plans to build a buffer reservoir in the proposed Arunachal hydropower project.

Brahmaputra hydrology: A Chinese military tool?

• China has continued to use the water of the Brahmaputra for its own benefit, knowingly creating hazardous conditions for downstream states such as India and Bangladesh.
• Concerns about China’s proposed 60,000 MW hydropower project in Medog, Tibet, are influencing the design of an Arunachal Pradesh hydropower project in the Upper Siang district.
• A ‘pre-feasibility report’ on the 11,000 MW project, which is more than five times the size of the largest such projects in India, has been submitted.

What is Medog super-dam Project?

• China is planning a mega dam in Tibet that will generate three times the electricity produced by the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest power station.
• The bridge will span the Brahmaputra River before it flows into India from the Himalayas.
• It is expected to produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year and will be the largest dam in the world when completed.

India’s plan to construct a buffer reservoir

• During monsoonal flow, the proposed project’s design incorporates a “buffer storage” of 9 billion cubic metres (or approximately 9 billion tonnes of water).
• This could serve as a reservoir for a year’s flow that would otherwise be available from the Brahmaputra, or as a buffer against sudden releases.

The Medog Project’s Threats

• Because Chinese dams can hold large amounts of water, during droughts China could cut off the river’s flow, endangering the lives of millions of people in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh.
• Reduced flow in the Brahmaputra: The 60,000 MW dam in Medog may reduce the Brahmaputra’s natural flow.
• Artificial floods: Away from India during dry spells, it could be used to cause “artificial floods” in the Brahmaputra basin.
• Degradation of the entire basin: Dams would trap silt carried by the river, lowering soil quality and eventually reducing agricultural productivity.
• Seismic threats: According to seismologists, the Himalayas are the most vulnerable to earthquakes and seismic activity.
• Ecological risks: The combined impact of these two megaprojects could exacerbate ecological degradation by converting lotic ecosystems to lentic ecosystems.
• Water security: Damming the Brahmaputra would provide water security in an era of unprecedented climate change.
• Catastrophic threat: Any damage to the mega dam, if built here, will result in dam breaching and flooding in India and Bangladesh.

Why are such issues unaddressed?

• There is no bilateral or multilateral treaty or other effective and formal instrument of understanding for collaborative management of the Brahmaputra River.
• Border hostility: Undrawn borders are at the heart of all hostilities between India and China.

India’s dilemma

• Flood control dichotomy: While India’s hydropower projects have the potential to help control flooding from the Brahmaputra in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
• No strategic deterrence to China: This may not serve as a strategic deterrent to China.
• Resentment toward Bangladesh: While a large dam in India may help control floods within the country, it may also spark new disputes over water sharing with Bangladesh downstream.

Way Ahead

• Our shared rivers must be managed collaboratively.
• Because India shares river basins with its neighbours, hydrodiplomacy should be an important component of Indian foreign policy.

Source: https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/energy-strategies-in-india-china-contest-for-hegemony-on-brahmaputra-rpt-123010400104_1.html