Category: International Relations

Japan, which invented the modern geopolitical concept of the Indo-Pacific, is now well on its way to changing the way we think about Asia-Europe relations. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s message during his recent trip to Europe was straightforward: the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific is inseparable.

How did Japan influence the Indo-Pacific concept?

• Japan is no longer alone in the Indo-Pacific: Kishida is determined to build strong military partnerships with Europe, building on the ideas of his predecessor, the late Shinzo Abe. Japan, South Korea, and Australia are bridging the gap between Asia and Europe, which were previously viewed as separate geopolitical theatres.
• South Korea increasing its profile in Europe: South Korea, which does not always agree with Japan, is also joining the party by increasing its profile in Europe. Seoul, for example, is selling major weapon platforms in Poland.
• Australia wants to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific: Australia, which has joined the US and UK in the AUKUS agreement, wants to bring Europe into the Indo-Pacific as well.
• This process has been accelerated by Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as the alliance between Moscow and Beijing.

The idea of Eurasia

• Many used it as a neutral term: The idea of Eurasia is not new, many used it as a neutral term to describe the vast landmass that connected Europe and Asia.
• Separate political spheres: Despite continental continuity, Europe and Asia emerged over millennia as distinct political and cultural spheres.
• Russia as a European and Asian power: Russia, which straddles this space, saw itself as both a European and an Asian power, but had difficulty assimilating into either. When post-Soviet Russia’s efforts to integrate with the West faltered in the 2000s, it created the geopolitical constructs of Eurasia and Greater Eurasia.
• Putin’s Eurasian strategy included consolidating former Soviet space, regaining influence in Central Europe, forging a strong alliance with China, and limiting Western influence in the continental heartland.

China-Russia cooperation

• Geopolitical dynamics are changing: Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin changed the geopolitical dynamic in Eurasia long before Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol turned to Europe.
• Putin travelled to Beijing last February to sign an agreement declaring an alliance without limits and no forbidden areas, just days before ordering his armies into Ukraine.
• China’s inclination towards Russia: China, which had made a largely successful effort to cultivate Europe since the 1990s, avoided taking sides in Europe’s conflicts with Russia on purpose. However, on the eve of the Ukraine war, Xi chose to lean towards Moscow by blaming NATO for the crisis.
• A different kind of Eurasian alliance: Putin and Xi unveiled a Eurasian alliance that they may have hoped would deliver the long-awaited demise of the West’s global hegemony. Instead, it strengthened the Western alliance in Europe while also laying the groundwork for a new kind of Eurasia, an alliance between China’s East Asian neighbours and Russia’s West European neighbours.

What are India’s Challenges?

• The rise of Eurasia makes it more difficult for India to ride on two boats at the same time: Previously, India could easily hunt with the maritime coalition the Quad in the Indo-Pacific while also running with the continental coalitions led by Russia and China.
• US Europe and Japan on one hand, China and Russia on the other: The conflict between the United States, Europe, and Japan on one hand, and China and Russia on the other, is now acute and shows no signs of abating.
• On the downside, India’s mounting security challenges from China on the Himalayan frontier, combined with the tightening embrace between Moscow and Beijing, will cast a darker shadow over India’s continental strategy in the coming days.
• Strategic capabilities in collaboration: On the plus side, the prospects for strengthening India’s strategic capabilities in collaboration with the United States and Europe, as well as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have never been better.

Opportunities for India may include

• Increased economic cooperation and trade between India and countries in Europe and Asia.
• India’s expanded role in international affairs: As a result of increased connectivity and cooperation, India has the potential to play a larger role in regional and global affairs.
• To address Indo-Pacific security concerns: Opportunities for India to strengthen ties with Japan and other countries in the region to address Indo-Pacific security concerns

@the end

In terms of economic cooperation and geopolitical influence, Japan’s strategy of promoting greater connectivity and cooperation between Europe and Asia may present both opportunities and challenges for India. To maximise opportunities and minimise challenges, India will need to carefully navigate and balance its relationships with various countries and groups in the region.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/in-light-of-china-russia-alliance-and-ukraine-conflict-india-and-the-new-eurasia-8388063/

The article discusses the controversy surrounding billionaire philanthropist and political activist George Soros and his alleged statements about India and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Munich Security Conference.

Who is George Soros?

• George Soros, the 92-year-old billionaire philanthropist and political activist, has been embroiled in a number of scandals over the years.

Some of the major issues surrounding Soros include:

• Currency manipulation: In the 1990s, Soros rose to prominence for his role in the UK’s “Black Wednesday” financial crisis, where he was accused of profiting from the pound sterling’s depreciation by short-selling it.
• Insider trading: In several cases, Soros has been accused of insider trading, including the case of the French bank Societe Generale.
• Soros has been accused of using his vast wealth to influence political campaigns and events all over the world, including in Hungary, Ukraine, and the United States.
• Soros has been the subject of numerous conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic accusations, with some critics alleging that he is part of a secret globalist agenda to control world governments and economies.

Concerning the Munich Security Conference (MSC)

• At the height of the Cold War, Ewald-Heinrich von Kleist, a German official and publisher, founded the MSC (1947-1991).
• Starting in 1963, the conference initially only focused on military issues and was mainly attended by western countries and their high-profile officials, who “came together to display a united front in their struggle with Soviet communism”.
• After the Cold War ended, the conference’s agenda expanded to include issues other than defence and security, such as climate change and migration.
• It also began to invite leaders from eastern countries such as Russia, India, and China.

What will the theme of this year’s MSC be?

• This year’s edition may require a refocus on its goal—European security order—in light of the Russia-Ukraine war, which began just days after the MSC 2022 concluded.
• The conference could also be used to ease tensions between the US and China, especially after the former shot down an alleged spy balloon.
• Another agenda item is to focus on diverse perspectives from the Global South, which includes some of the world’s poorest and least industrialised countries.

Source: https://securityconference.org/

Bangladesh-India relations have recently entered the Golden Chapter of their history. The Prime Minister of Bangladesh has been invited as a special guest to the G20 Summit by the Prime Minister of India, putting the finishing touches on this bilateral friendship. Bangladesh is the only South Asian country on India’s invitation list. India’s invitation to Bangladesh as its guest demonstrates the country’s high regard for its immediate eastern neighbour and “best friend” in the neighbourhood.

The evolution of India-Bangladesh relations

• India has civilizational, cultural, social, and economic ties with Bangladesh.
• There is much that binds the two countries together, including a shared history and heritage, linguistic and cultural ties, and a love of music, literature, and the arts.
• It is also worth noting that India and Bangladesh share the world’s longest border, which is 4,096.7 kilometres long and ranks fifth in the world.
• They forged greater bilateral engagement and trade with the onset of economic liberalisation in South Asia.

In Depth: Why is Bangladesh so crucial to India?

South Asia’s largest trading partner is India.

• Bangladesh has emerged as India’s most important trading partner: Bangladesh will be India’s largest trading partner in South Asia in 2021-22, while India is Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner and largest export market in Asia. Despite the pandemic, bilateral trade has increased at an unprecedented 14 percent.
• Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement: The two countries are also preparing to sign the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which will significantly strengthen their trade and commercial partnerships.

Gateway for India’s Northeast

• Strategic location: Efforts have been made in recent years by both Bangladesh and India to improve connectivity between Bangladesh and India’s Northeast, which is geographically located between West Bengal and landlocked Northeastern states.
• Initiatives to Improve Connectivity: Initiatives such as inviting India to use Chattogram and Mongla ports, adding new ports and protocol routes to the shared inland waterway network, building the Maitri and Padma Setu bridges, and the upcoming Akhaura-Agartala rail line all aim to improve trade and transportation connectivity. The Mitali Express has also begun biweekly journeys between New Jalpaiguri and Dhaka.
• Important for stability and security: Bangladesh has been an outstanding security partner for India, particularly with its zero-tolerance approach to terrorism. Bangladesh has arrested and handed over insurgents from separatist militant groups in the Northeast (United Liberation Front of Asom) to India on several occasions.

A cornerstone of India’s Neighbourhood First and Act East Policies

• The Bay of Bengal’s Growing Strategic Importance: The Bay of Bengal’s growing strategic importance, heightened by China’s rising and assertive presence in this maritime space, has prompted India to strengthen relations with the Bay littorals in order to maintain its pre-eminence in the Bay, which it regards as a primary area of interest.
• Important for India’s Policy of Eastern Neighborhood: Furthermore, as its western front remains troubled, India is attempting to strengthen ties with its eastern neighbours in order to realise its Indo-Pacific ambitions.
• As China attempts to gain a foothold, India Reviving and Cultivating Cooperation: As China attempts to gain a stronger foothold in the Bay region through inroads into Bangladesh, India has felt an added impetus to nurture its relationship with the country, reviving age-old bonds and cultivating new avenues for cooperation.
• Vaccine Maitri Initiative in India As an example: During the pandemic, India prioritised Bangladesh and provided 10.3 crore vaccine doses, making it the largest recipient of its Vaccine Maitri initiative. The gesture was graciously returned by providing

Key Areas of Cooperation on India’s G20 Agenda

Climate change and disaster management

• Green Development, Climate Finance, and LiFE’: As the name implies, this segment is dedicated to raising environmental awareness and understanding the impact of climate change, with a particular emphasis on not only climate finance and technology, but also ensuring just energy transitions for developing nations worldwide.
• For example, both countries agreed to collaborate on climate change, with a focus on the Sundarban region, which is facing challenges due to climate-induced sea level rise.
• Disaster risk reduction: Both India and Bangladesh are frequently hit by natural disasters such as cyclones that form in the turbulent Bay of Bengal. As a result, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Disaster Management in 2021 to address this transnational threat.

Make the switch to renewable energy.

• Cooperation and energy transition: Because energy transitions are an important issue in India’s G20 mandate, Bangladesh recently announced a target of generating 40% of its power from clean energy by 2041. India and Bangladesh have increased their energy cooperation.
• Projects such as the Friendship Pipeline and the Maitree Super Thermal Power Project, for example, have agreed to strengthen cooperation in energy efficiency and clean energy, including biofuels.

Cyber security

• Cooperation in cyber security: Cyber security is an inherent aspect of Digital Public Infrastructures (DPIs), and it also happens to be one of the areas in which India and Bangladesh have agreed to collaborate.
• Joining forces to improve AI and cyber security: In June 2022, both countries agreed to expand their strategic partnership to improve AI and cyber security.

Way ahead: Forging better multilateralism

• India’s priority within the G20 is to promote reformed multilateralism that fosters accountable, inclusive, just, equitable, and representative multipolar international systems capable of addressing contemporary challenges.
• Bangladesh, as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, will become even more important to India in the future.
• Bangladesh is a member of many multilateral platforms in India’s neighbourhood (an area in which India seeks to exert influence), including SAARC, BIMSTEC, and IORA.
• If India’s G20 ambitions are to be reflected in regional multilateral platforms, the country’s support is required.

@the end

As India attempts to shape the global agenda through the G20, it requires Bangladesh’s help to put many of these ideas into action in its neighbourhood. This will lend credibility to its presidency, and some of these emerging areas of cooperation may eventually add pages to the “Golden Chapter” of India-Bangladesh relations.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/india-bangladesh-ties-have-grown-mature-leadership-on-both-sides-8139541/

To counter China’s proposed 60,000 MW Medog hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River, India plans to build a buffer reservoir in the proposed Arunachal hydropower project.

Brahmaputra hydrology: A tool of aggression for China

• China has continued to use the water of the Brahmaputra for its own benefit, knowingly creating hazardous conditions for downstream states such as India and Bangladesh.
• Concerns about China’s proposed 60,000 MW hydropower project in Medog, Tibet, are influencing the design of an Arunachal Pradesh hydropower project in the Upper Siang district.
• A ‘pre-feasibility report’ on the 11,000 MW project, which is more than five times the size of the largest such projects in India, has been submitted.

What is Medog super-dam Project?

• China is planning a mega dam in Tibet that will generate three times the electricity produced by the Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest power station.
• The bridge will span the Brahmaputra River before it flows into India from the Himalayas.
• It is expected to produce 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year and will be the largest dam in the world when completed.

India’s plan is to construct a buffer reservoir

• During monsoonal flow, the proposed project’s design incorporates a “buffer storage” of 9 billion cubic metres (or approximately 9 billion tonnes of water).
• This could serve as a reservoir for a year’s flow that would otherwise be available from the Brahmaputra, or as a buffer against sudden releases.

Threats posed by Medog Project

• Because Chinese dams can hold large amounts of water, during droughts China could cut off the river’s flow, endangering the lives of millions of people in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh.
• Reduced flow in the Brahmaputra: The 60,000 MW dam in Medog could reduce the natural flow of water from the Brahmaputra.
• Artificial floods: Away from India during dry spells, it could be used to cause “artificial floods” in the Brahmaputra basin.
• Degradation of the entire basin: Dams would trap silt carried by the river, lowering soil quality and eventually reducing agricultural productivity.
• Seismic threats: According to seismologists, the Himalayas are the most vulnerable to earthquakes and seismic activity.
• Ecological risks: The combined impact of these two megaprojects could exacerbate ecological degradation by converting lotic ecosystems to lentic ecosystems.
• Water security: Damming the Brahmaputra would provide water security in an era of unprecedented climate change.
• Catastrophic threat: Any damage to the mega dam, if built here, will result in dam breaching and flooding in India and Bangladesh.

Why are such issues ignored?

• There is no bilateral or multilateral treaty or other effective and formal instrument of understanding for collaborative management of the Brahmaputra River.
• Border hostility: Undrawn borders are at the heart of all hostilities between India and China.

India’s predicament

• Flood control dichotomy: While India’s hydropower projects have the potential to help control flooding from the Brahmaputra in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
• No strategic deterrence to China: This may not serve as a strategic deterrent to China.
• Resentment towards Bangladesh: While a large dam in India may help control floods within the country, it may also spark new disputes over water sharing with Bangladesh downstream.

Way ahead

• Our shared rivers must be managed collaboratively.
• Because India shares river basins with its neighbours, hydrodiplomacy should be an important component of Indian foreign policy.

Source: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-china-contest-for-hegemony-on-brahmaputra-beijing-makes-drought-plan-11672808416887.html

Japan and India have launched “Veer Guardian 2023,” their second Joint Air Defense Exercise, to conduct multi-domain air combat operations in a complex environment and deepen mutual operational understanding while fostering closer defence cooperation. This increased military cooperation between Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific under US guidance is causing a mild panic among Chinese commentators.

Everything you need to know about Veer Guardian 2023.

• Exercise in pairs: Veer Guardian is a joint air exercise conducted by the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF).
• The fourth edition: The fourth edition of the Veer Guardian series took place in January 2023 at Hyakuri Air Base near Tokyo, Japan.
• The IAF sent six Sukhoi Su-30MKI multirole fighters and two C-17 Globemaster transport planes, while the JASDF sent six Mitsubishi F-2 fighters.
• The exercise’s primary goals are to improve interoperability between the two air forces, exchange best practises and operational experiences, and improve understanding of each other’s tactics and procedures.
• Drills: Various aerial manoeuvres, air combat scenarios, air-to-ground strikes, and close air support operations were part of the exercise. The Indian side also took part in a humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) exercise in which the C-17 plane dropped relief supplies into a simulated disaster-hit area.

Collaboration between Japan and India against China

• Japan’s Pursuit of Allies: To counterbalance China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan has been actively seeking allies. It has formed alliances with a number of countries, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Australia, and India.
• Security Cooperation between Japan and India: Since 2020, Japan and India have had a reciprocal access agreement in place. They have conducted joint military exercises in the naval, ground, and air domains on a regular basis.
• Chances for India to gain experience: After a three-year border standoff with China, India sees the joint air exercises with Japan as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to gain experience over the East China Sea. As a result, the joint drill with Japan could pave the way for future quadrilateral air exercises.

Why is China concerned about Japan and India’s growing collaboration?

• The National Security Strategy of Japan: The NSS sees China as the greatest challenge Japan has ever faced and recommends a counter-strike capability by 2027.
• Japan’s approach to countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region: As evidenced by Japan’s recently published National Security Strategy, the Chinese government believes Japan is exaggerating the China Threat Theory (NSS).
• Limiting Strategic Manoeuvrability: A stronger India poses a major threat to China’s west, while Japan remains a major threat to China’s east. Because India and Japan are both significant players in the Asia-Pacific region, their cooperation may limit China’s strategic manoeuvrability.
• Power balance: Together, India and Japan have the potential to bring about a paradigm shift in the region’s security. One way Japan is attempting to balance its power with China is through increased collaboration with India.
• Concern for national security: Furthermore, China sees Japan’s recent efforts to court allies and introduce NATO forces in the Asia-Pacific region as potentially leading to a resurgence of Japan’s militarist past, which concerns China.

@the end

To summarise, the Japan-India joint air drill will provide both air forces with valuable combat experience. It will also advance Japan’s strategy of integrating India more deeply into the East Asian security architecture. However, for China, the air drill is a foreshadowing of things to come.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/japan-india-hold-first-joint-air-drill-as-china-concerns-grow#:~:text=Japan%20and%20India%20held%20their,will%20run%20through%20around%20Jan.

The recent incident involving a Chinese’spy balloon’ spotted 60,000 feet above the skies of Montana in the United States (US) and eventually shot down by a missile fired from a US F22 fighter jet off the coast of South Carolina has left far too many questions unanswered.

What does the debris mean?

• While some of the clues found in the balloon’s debris have revealed some information, the incident itself is reminiscent of Cold War era tactics and a foreshadowing of archetypal grey-zone activities that could characterise China’s standard operating procedure in the future.

United States claims

• The US State Department’s confident claims that the balloon “was clearly for intelligence surveillance and was likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications” indicate that a crisis in US-China relations is on the way.

Understanding Chinese attitudes

• The spy balloon episode provides insight into the worldview of Chinese strategists: There is a strategic awareness in Beijing that, even though the war in Europe has been ongoing for over a year, the US may be shifting its focus to the Western Pacific region, where it is rebuilding its naval power, reviving alliances, and consolidating its position as the hub of its hub-and-spokes network in the Pacific theatre.
• Defense cooperation between the United States and the Philippines: The US-Philippines defence cooperation has been renewed, bolstering America’s defences against Taiwan.
• Another source of such perceptions in China is Japan’s return to geopolitics: Following Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s warning that East Asia could face the same fate as Ukraine, the country has drastically altered its security policy. On the one hand, Japan is developing domestic capabilities such as gradually increasing defence spending and planning for a missile arsenal to deter China, while also expanding defence cooperation with the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
• Chinese reservations about the Indo-Pacific concept: The Indo-Pacific concept has been red-flagged by Chinese strategists, who compare it to America’s approach of developing ties with China’s neighbours with the goal of creating regional blocs like NATO to contain China.
• Japan’s new military posture is causing concern in Beijing. For starters, it is expected that Japan will deploy missiles in bases closer to Taiwan.
• Second, there is a belief that Japan’s growing defence capabilities in the region, combined with America’s growing military power in the Western Pacific, will eventually surpass China’s total national power.

A key feature of China’s aggression and expansionism is grey-zone warfare

• Reef reclamation in the South China Sea: The first step in its expansion into the South China Sea was the reclamation of reefs, followed by the construction of military infrastructure.
• Villages near the Indian border: In a similar vein, China has built ‘xiaokang’ villages near the Indian border to bolster its territorial claims.
• One of the grey zone tactics is the spy balloon episode: The spy balloon incident marks a significant turning point in this strategy, as the US has been on the receiving end of China’s grey-zone tactics for the first time.

@the end

To monitor China, the US employs a variety of tools, ranging from satellites to intercepted communications. It is not unreasonable to expect China to do the same to the United States. Between these two points of view is the realisation that the dragon’s hidden grey-zone tactics have spread more brazenly than ever before to the continental US.

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-editorials/spy-in-the-sky-chinas-espionage-balloons-or-espionage-ships-are-part-of-an-aggressive-strategy-that-can-target-india-too/

An American investigative journalist claims that the US Central Intelligence Agency was responsible for the September 2022 bombing of the undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines (CIA).

What is Nord Stream Pipeline?

(1) Nord Stream 1:

• Nord Stream 1 is the world’s largest pipeline, connecting Russia and Europe via Germany.
• It is a network of offshore natural gas pipelines that connect Russia to Germany.
• Nord Stream 1 is a 1,224-kilometer underwater gas pipeline that connects Vyborg, Russia, to Lubmin, Germany, via the Baltic Sea.

(2) Nord Stream 2:

• Russian threats to cut off Europe’s gas supply pose an economic risk to Germany.
• Germany decided to build Nord Stream 2 to increase options and double Russian supply.
• The $11 billion Nord Stream 2 project was completed in 2021 but never began commercial operations.

Why the Nord Stream pipeline is so much in news?

• For Germany: Because of cheap gas supplies via Nord Stream 1, energy prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, are among the lowest on the continent. This also makes German-made goods more competitive in the global market.
• For the European Union: Russia supplied nearly 40% of the EU’s natural gas needs through this pipeline in 2021. The flows through Nord Stream are critical to filling the EU’s national storage tanks. It is critical to provide adequate heating during the upcoming winter.
• For Russia: Russia is using supplies via the critical pipeline as a bargain to navigate its economy through western sanctions.

How is the Nord Stream pipeline currently progressing?

• The Nord Stream pipeline is Russia’s largest single supply route to Europe. The pipeline is majority owned by the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom.
• While the pipeline had been operating at only 20% of its capacity since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the company completely cut gas flows from the pipeline in early September under the guise of maintenance.
• According to Bloomberg, before the Russia-Ukraine war, 40% of Europe’s pipeline gas came from Russia; now, the figure is only 9%.
• Despite the fact that neither pipeline was operational, it contained millions of cubic metres of gas.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/us-bombed-nord-stream-gas-pipelines-journalist-claims-8434423/

The 25th anniversary of India and France’s strategic partnership (January 26) provides an important opportunity for both countries to reflect on their relationships. The time-tested strategic partnership, signed in 1998, has gained momentum over shared values and aspirations of peace, stability, and, most importantly, strategic autonomy. There are no substantive differences between the two countries.

France is India’s largest foreign investor

• France has emerged as India’s most important trading partner, with annual trade of $12.42 billion in 2021-22.
• It is India’s 11th largest foreign investor, with a total investment of $10.31 billion from April 2000 to June 2022, accounting for 1.70% of total foreign direct investment inflows into the country.

France is India’s most important defence trading partner.

• Second largest defence supplier between 2017 and 2021: France has emerged as an important defence partner for India, becoming the country’s second largest defence supplier between 2017 and 2021. With critical defence deals and increased military-to-military engagement, France has emerged as a major strategic partner for India.
• As an example: A key example is the induction of French Scorpene conventional submarines, which are being built in India under a 2005 technology transfer agreement, and the Indian Air Force receiving 36 Rafale fighter jets.
• Aircraft manufacturing joint venture: The Tata group has also partnered with Airbus to manufacture the C-295 tactical transport aircraft in Vadodara, Gujarat. In a joint venture with France, this line is expected to be expanded into other civilian and military aircraft manufacturing.
• Regular joint exercises: These ties are strengthened further by a robust network of military dialogues and the regular joint exercises Varuna (navy), Garuda (air force), and Shakti (army).
• France is an eager partner for India: The French Ambassador to India, Emmanuel Lenain, recently stated that France is a willing partner for India as it builds its national industrial base for the defence industry and critical strategic defence projects, emphasising the importance of the defence partnership.

Maritime connections

• India-France Joint Strategic Vision Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region: India and France are Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific resident powers. The importance of the Indian Ocean Region was evident during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to New Delhi in 2018, when both countries’ leaders welcomed the Joint Strategic Vision of India-France Cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region, which presented a blueprint for strengthening ties.
• Similar partners: In terms of operations, Franco-Indian joint patrolling in the Indian Ocean signals New Delhi’s intention to work with similar partners to expand its footprint in the Indian Ocean.
• A shared vision for an open Indo-Pacific: Maritime security has gained traction as both countries articulate their shared vision for a free, fair, and open Indo-Pacific. Both countries want to provide all-encompassing solutions for maritime security, regional cooperation, and climate change adaptation.
• Concerns about China’s aggressive behaviour: Both countries are concerned about China’s rise and aggressive behaviour, both regionally and globally, and have committed to working together to ensure that the Indo-Pacific region is not imbalanced.
• Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund: In September 2022, India and France agreed to establish an Indo-Pacific Trilateral Development Cooperation Fund to support long-term innovative solutions for countries in the region. The two partners have joined forces with the UAE to ensure maritime domain awareness and security from the east coast of Africa to the far Pacific.

Additional areas of collaboration

• Nuclear cooperation: France was one of the first countries to sign a civil nuclear agreement with India. Following the 1998 nuclear tests, Paris also played a critical role in limiting India’s isolation in the non-proliferation order.
• France supports India’s bid for permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council, as well as its entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, as a sign of expanding cooperation.
• Climate change is an area of importance for both, and India has supported France in the Paris Agreement, expressing its strong commitment to mitigating the effects of climate change. In 2015, New Delhi and Paris established the International Solar Alliance as part of their joint efforts to combat climate change.
• Deepening cooperation in a complex geological order: As the international geopolitical order has become more complex, both countries have worked to deepen and broaden their cooperation.

Way Forward

• The partnership between India and France is based on shared values and goals.
• Both have emphasised the importance of maintaining strategic autonomy while sharing a common understanding of global risks in a variety of domains.
• A high-level India-France political dialogue on defence, maritime, counterterrorism, and the Indo-Pacific is currently underway.
• They are now moving forward with collaboration in areas such as digitisation, cyber security, green energy, a blue economy, ocean sciences, and space.

@the end

India and France are aware of each other’s interests and dependencies, whether with regard to China or Russia. There is much room for future collaboration in the context of a long strategic partnership, a shared interest in enhancing strategic autonomy and improving resilience.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/exploring-the-blue-in-the-india-france-partnership/article66490647.ece

It has been exactly two years since the Myanmar army took power.

Myanmar Coup: A quick recap

• A coup in Myanmar began on the morning of 1 February 2021, when democratically elected members of the country’s ruling party, were deposed by the Tatmadaw—Myanmar’s military.
• The coup occurred the day before Myanmar’s Parliament was to swear in the members elected in the 2020 election, preventing this from happening.
• Aung San Suu Kyi, the pivotal leader, was detained, along with ministers, their deputies, and members of Parliament.

India’s policy balancing act in Myanmar

• India has pursued a ‘Dual-Track Policy,’ which essentially means doing business with the junta, for nearly three decades.
• Along four northeastern states, India shares a 1,600-kilometer border with Myanmar.
• It has a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal, and its failure presents a foreign policy quandary that it is attempting to resolve.
• Since 1990, it has ruled Myanmar with tea and sympathy for the people for all but five years.

Why is this in the news now?

• Hundreds of armed pro-democracy civilian resistance groups (People’s Defence Forces) are fighting the junta and denying the army access to large swaths of the country.
• Furthermore, some of the two dozen ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have been fighting the Myanmar state for autonomy for the last seven decades have allied with the PDFs.

Concerns in India

• Chinese inroads: As China, with its deep pockets, emerged as a rival in the region over the last two decades, engaging with the junta was seen as a way to maintain Indian influence in Myanmar.
• No democratic restoration: During the last decade’s “democratic transition,” Delhi had to calibrate this engagement and rebalance the dual track.
• Even with India’s narrowly defined national interests: border security management and limiting China in Myanmar, these are becoming apparent.
• Limitations of strategy: India has stuck to its old engagement model of doing business with the military regime, encouraging it to restore democracy, and sympathising with democratic forces.

Recent achievement: Sittwe Port has been completed.

• Sittwe port, developed by India as part of the Kaladan project, was ready for operation in the first week of January.
• It will be inaugurated soon.

Five ways India’s calculations have been thrown off

• Bluffing on connectivity: While maritime trade was one goal, the primary goal of this project, which was to provide alternate access to India’s landlocked north-east states, now appears to be a bridge too far.
• Massive influx of refugees: Tens of thousands of refugees from Myanmar’s neighbouring Chin state are being housed in Mizoram. Refugees have entered other Northeastern states, albeit in smaller numbers.
• Terrorist clouds: More dangerously, the recent bombing of a Chin militia headquarters on the border with Mizoram by the Myanmar Air Force, with shrapnel hitting the Indian side during this operation, sparked panic in the area.
• Another potential cross-border spillover is narcotics smuggling, according to the latest UN Office on Drugs and Crime report on Myanmar (Myanmar Opium Survey).
• Supporting Indian insurgents: The Myanmar junta has recruited Indian insurgent groups (IIGs) in Manipur and Nagaland to fight the local PDFs and other groups.
• The Rohingya crisis is worsening: The military is unable to resolve the Rohingya crisis, which is yet another regional destabilizer.

Way forward for India

• In the G20, India has positioned its year-long presidency as an opportunity to project the voice of the global south.
• Extra-diplomatic engagement: India can open channels to democratic forces and ethnic groups; it can work more actively with ASEAN; it can open an army-to-army channel with the junta; it can increase people-to-people channels; and it can offer scholarships to Myanmar students, as it did to Afghan students in a previous era.
• Ensuring fair elections: The junta is considering holding elections later this year after switching from the first-past-the-post system to proportional representation in order to weaken the NLD’s electoral power.

Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/2-years-after-coup-myanmars-mess-and-indias-headache-8422945/