Japan’s National Security Strategy, which was released in December, is an outstanding document. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s assertive rise, and provocations by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK-North Korea) are among the key developments that have created the most severe and complex security environment for Japan since the end of WWII.
What are Japan’s latest concerns?
- Chinese military power is growing: Chinese military power is increasing at an exponential rate, unconstrained by bilateral or multilateral agreements. In less than a decade, China’s nuclear arsenal would match that of the United States and Russia. Expectations are low that the US will have the will or the capability to bring China to the negotiating table on arms control.
- The DPRK is on a rampage of proliferation: After shaking off all the constraints on its nuclear program that it pretended to accept during the Trump administration, its nuclear program may now be unstoppable.
- The inadequacy of its current defence posture, as well as its military alliance with the United States: The document emphasizes that extended deterrence, including nuclear weapons, is the cornerstone of the US-Japan alliance. Its success has allowed Japan to maintain its three nuclear no’s policy of no nuclear weapons production, possession, or introduction on its territory.
What concerns Japan about its future adequacy and options
- The stated alternative: The National Security Strategy calls for Japan to strengthen its alliance’s deterrence and response capabilities, including extended deterrence by the US, backed by its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.
- Japan’s possible nuclear-sharing trends: The unspoken part is Japan’s possible nuclear-sharing. This may be new to Asia if implemented, but it is a long-standing US practice with its key NATO allies in Europe. The willingness of the United States to share nuclear-powered submarines with Australia as part of AUKUS is an indicator of potential trends.
- The possibility of Japan acquiring nuclear weapons is not mentioned in the document. However, there are references to the United States, which, in Japan’s opinion, is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a free and open international order. The message is clear behind Japanese politeness.
- Japanese-style strategic autonomy: Significantly, the document adds that Japan would seek to strengthen its defense capabilities to the point where it could assume primary responsibility for its defense while still receiving US support.
How India should view this development?
- If Japan goes nuclear, India should be pleased: In our respective ways, India and Japan prioritized nuclear disarmament. However, there comes a time when this national preference must be subordinated to national security concerns.
- Recognizing the reason: In 1998, India came to this reluctant but justified conclusion. If Japan came to the same conclusion, it would have good reason to.
- Maintaining sovereignty and ensuring self-defense capabilities: Its technological capabilities are undeniable. It is Japan’s inherent and inalienable right to ensure the necessary means of self-defense. Thinking the unthinkable in terms of policy change is a feature of sovereignty, not its denial.
Way forward
- If Japan chooses to pursue an explicit nuclear option, it will do so out of necessity rather than choice.
- Its strategic predicament, as revealed by the document, is exacerbated by a lack of simple solutions, a predicament that India should regard with sympathy and understanding as a fellow Asian country.
- Japan is a strong supporter of the NPT and its derivative non-proliferation regime, but it is also painfully aware that the NPT does little to constrain China or the DPRK.
- In the past, US extended deterrence covered the gap between Japan’s security needs in a nuclearized world and its non-nuclear public sentiment. That appears less likely to be the case in the future.
@the end
A truly multipolar Indo-Pacific can exist only if Japan is assured of national defense through means of its choosing. As a strategic partner and friend, we must remain confident that Japan will make the correct decision at the appropriate time.
Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/japan-national-security-strategy-japan-goes-nuclear-india-should-welcome-8363720/