On March 10, in an unexpected turn of events, the National Security Advisors of Iran and Saudi Arabia announced, in the presence of Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi in Beijing, that they have reached a mutual understanding to address their issues and will reopen their embassies within two months.
Iran-China Strategic Partnership
- Iran regards China as its most important strategic partner, and was concerned when the joint statement issued at the first China-GCC Summit in Riyadh in December 2022 called on Iran to maintain the non-proliferation regime and to respect the principles of non-interference in the internal affairs of states.
- The China-brokered agreement, which comes a month after Raisi’s visit to Beijing, demonstrates how Beijing has successfully leveraged its ties with an Iran that is facing domestic pressure, sanctions, and deteriorating relations with Europe over its military support for Russia.
The Dialogue Process
- The Security Dialogue Between Iran and Saudi Arabia: This refers to ongoing talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia to improve regional security, particularly in Yemen. These talks began in 2021, facilitated by then-Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, and have continued in fits and starts ever since.
- Conflict Resolution Policies Implemented by the Biden Administration: As a conflict management measure, the Biden administration has taken steps to end American support for offensive operations in Yemen, including relevant arms sales. This move aided Riyadh in seeing the logic of dialogue with Iran.
- Chinese Role in Final Agreement Mediation: China played a critical role in mediating the final agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Beijing has taken a balanced approach to strengthening ties with all players based on mutual respect and common interests rather than geopolitical alignments with specific countries.
- China’s Expanding Regional Engagement: China’s expanding regional engagement in the Middle East is motivated by a desire to differentiate itself from US-led interventions in the region. Beijing has aided Gulf states in establishing multilateral dialogue platforms and taking the lead on regional issues, including those involving Iran.
What are India’s worries?
- Any improvement in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could have an impact on India’s energy security. India is heavily reliant on oil imports from both countries, and any conflict or tension between them could result in oil supply disruptions and price increases.
- Regional destabilisation: Rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has fueled conflicts in the Middle East, including the ongoing conflict in Yemen. Any escalation of tensions between the two countries could lead to further destabilisation in the region, potentially jeopardising India’s security interests.
- China’s growing Middle Eastern influence: China’s role in mediating the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrates the country’s growing political capital in the region, which may have implications for India’s strategic interests. India has long had friendly relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and any shift in the regional balance of power could have an impact on India’s interests.
- The impact on India’s Chabahar port project: India has heavily invested in the development of Iran’s Chabahar port as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Any improvement in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could have an impact on India’s port plans, which could have implications for India’s regional strategic interests.
@the end
India must now deal with the new reality in which China has been able to translate its economic clout in West Asia into diplomatic clout. The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia may have a positive impact on regional stability, but India will need to closely monitor the evolving dynamics and assess how it can leverage its own relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other regional players to secure its strategic interests.
Source: https://indianexpress.com/article/world/china-role-iran-saudi-arabia-deal-xi-jinping-global-goals-8491714/